2pm update - hourly index cycle..trying to floor

Its increasingly looking like the hourly index cycles are in a slow process of flooring. There is only moderate confidence in this outlook though, so I'm still sitting it out until primary 1350/60 re-short target is hit.

Regardless, anyone who was chasing this market lower at the open, should have exited this past hour. It is still possible we'll drop lower to 1300/1290 before a final move higher...but this really is a messy Monday. Best left..alone!


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

The VIX is trying to claw a little higher, but it looks WEAK, and from a MACD cycle perspective, its always cycled a long way up. This is NOT good for the bears, not good at all.

With still two hours to go, I'm not expecting much change from current levels though.
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update 2.06pm
Well, VIX just made a new high,..and sp'1318....either that is another shakeout move, or we'll be at 1300 sometime tue/wed. Either way, too unreliable right now to trade.

1pm update - still a mixed mess

Things remain very confusing on the smaller time frame. Are we going to spend the whole of this week forming a wave'b down to 1300..even 1290? Or will the 60min cycle level out by the end of today, and then further gains Tues/Wednesday...with a fair chance of 1350/60 near the end of the week?

Considering the underlying lunacy of this market, the latter remains a very valid possibility still - not least since the VIX is up a mere 2%

Holding to original overall target of 1350/60..as the prime re-short level.


Sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

It remains a tricky market...from a permabear viewpoint....

Daily/weekly trend cycle says 'NO!' to shorting yet.
60min cycle is now probably close to levelling out.

Yet..at the same time...a wave'B retrace would probably be around sp'1305/1295..before a C' up to 1350/60s - which might occur as late as next week.
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So..a bit confusing, and I won't be part of this mess until target level is hit. The one thing I am pretty sure of, 1350s will be a pretty good level to short this weak market.

12pm update - daily cycles..for perspective

Whilst the market continues to swing all around, confusing just about everyone...the daily cycles will help to keep things in perspective.


sp' 4month close view

iwm, bearish outlook

Summary

I think most important of all right now - especially for the bears, the VIX is NOT confirming this early fail/move lower in the market.

IWM could easily fall to 75, which would equate to sp'1300 or so. That may well be the base of wave'B. If it is, that still means we could hit 1350/60 by the end of this week.

Primary target remains 1350/60. Until then, I'm sitting this nonsense out.
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stay tuned!