10am update - choppy open

Hmm, a choppy opening half hour. Any bounce might be a minute '4 of a final fifth lower. The real tricky aspect will be how low does the fifth go. The weekly chart suggest as low as 1225 is viable this week.

Of major importance this week...the Bernanke who speaks on Thursday. That will probably be a desisive part of this week.

Factory orders:  -0.6%  vs  0.1% expected.. ... not pretty.


Sp15min

sp'60min

Summary

Any bounce today - when it finally does start, should last at least a fair few hours, maybe all of today. I'd be a little surprised if it lasted into Tuesday.

Regardless, a re-short around 1295/1300 sure would be tempting, if we get that high.
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Pre-Market Brief - overnight recovery

Good morning. The bears are going to be real annoyed already and the market hasn't even opened yet. Early overnight losses of dow-125 have now swung to +5pts or so. I've no idea why this is the case, the trend looks slowly upward, so it looks like it was based on no news.


Sp'60min

Summary

From a cycle perspective, both the 15/60min cycles are VERY oversold (see blue bar histogram at base of chart). We could easily see 2-4 hours of upside to start this week, before a fail around the 10MA - which by the end of today will be around 1280/82.

So, a brief break - as high as 1295/1300 is viable today. Depending on the action, I will probably look to short any early ramp. All the bigger cycles suggest further losses, with a near term target in the 1225 area.

As usual, more across the day.

Weekend Update'2 - The Week Ahead

The futures wheel has just spun up, and we're marginally lower, -50 dow pts. Nothing dramatic..so far, but its a long night, and Asia will be opening soon to spice things up.

There is econ-data every day this coming week, nothing as major as last week though. However, most important of all, we have the Bernanke talking, 10am Thursday, -  'Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook'. Doubtless the media will be looking to Benny for hints of QE, and/or confirmation of weakness in the economy since the start of the year.


A brief reminder on where this sick and nasty market presently is...


Sp, daily, count'3

Sp, weekly

Summary

Target is sp'1225, as based on the weekly chart. Last weeks action looks like a straightforward bear flag, which was confirmed on Friday. If we've just seen a minute'2 of this blue wave'3, then the bigger moves should now be occurring - and Friday was good confirmation of that theory, with the biggest fall since last winter.

Regardless of overnight futures action, we could still bounce Monday - both 15/60min cycles are very low, a move to 1295/1300 is still easily viable, before further - and stronger impulsive moves toward the low 1200s.


Beware the Bernanke

Will Benny upset the market this Thursday? It is always risky to trade when the printer man is due to speak, the market could use it as an excuse either way.

Finally, look to the VIX, for a spike/capitulation day. So far, we've not seen that this year (see VIX posting on Friday).

Goodnight from a somewhat flooded city.