12pm update - bounce...underway

The day-trading bears have had all morning to cash in. We're still due a bounce to sp'1295/1300. Bears will be seeking a close at least under 1300 - which would open up targets of 1225/00 within 5-7 trading days

The VIX remains really bizarre, and was actually red just earlier. I'm not sure what to make of this. VIX 'should' in theory have opened up 20% to around 29. Instead, 8% to 26.


VIX'15min

Sp'15min

Summary

Today is interesting so far, the econ-data confirms my overall underlying view - and also my primary monthly cycle target of sp'1100 within a month or so.

I remain looking to re-short after 2pm...preferably sp'1295/1300 or higher.

11am update - awaiting intra-day bounce

With the VIX failing to adequately confirm the decline in the indexes, I'm glad to be back to cash. This market is not to be trusted, and when I see a black candle on the VIX at the open - with reversal candles on the Rus'2000 index, that's a real warning that the bears probably have it 'as good as it gets'.

However, I'm still bearish into next week, and I remain looking to reshort after 2pm, maybe around sp'1295/1300.


Sp'15min

vix'15min

Summary

VIX is putting in a double top on the intra-day 15min - the indexes are arguably doing the same with a double floor.

Looking for mini ramp to sp' 1295/1300 by 2/3pm. We might not bounce strongly...but i don't think any bear should be short into the afternoon.

More later...

10am update - VIX is NOT confirming this move

Considering the mood out there, the VIX should be  higher...much higher. Either the market has considerably further to fall today - with the VIX moving to +20%, or the lows for the day are already in.

The daily index cycles are of course important, and they do suggest much lower levels, yet....bears need to be careful today.


VIX, 60min

Sp'15min

Sp'60min

Sp' daily, bearish outlook, count'3

Summary

I remain short, but looking to exit this hour...and re-short after 1pm.

My basis to exit will be the 15min cycle...via MACD cycle.
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UPDATE 10.05am : exited ALL index short positions sp'1290

More across the day.