2pm update - tricky afternoon

The short term 15/60min cycles are very much saying further upside into the close, whilst the daily/weekly cycles will both keep putting downward pressure on this market. I still think today is working out okay - whether bullish or bearish inclined.

However, clearly today there are a lot of very disgruntled and moody bears out there. Surprisingly, I'm not one of them, having bailed at the open.


Sp'60min

VIX'60min

Immediate 2-6 hour trend is still upward, but yet we could still drop pretty hard in the last 90minutes of today. Its time to move to the 15min cycle

I continue to remain open minded, and consider a re-short before the close, the typical 'ideal peak' would be around 2.30pm - so just 30mins to go.

Top of the bear flag (pink)..sp'1375...we should be hitting that this hour.

Sp' 1340 remains the primary target, and that IS viable as early as tomorrow.
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update. 2.15pm
Short, from equivilent of sp'1373.  I might be a few hours, even a day early, but I'm shorting from 1% higher than my 9.30am exit..that'll do.

Lets see if we see some weakness into the close. 

1pm update - the baby bear flag is growing

Everything remains on track. The baby bear flag (pink) is the target for late today. I suppose we could cycle higher into Tuesday - although the daily cycle would argue against it. Both the daily and weekly cycles are going to put a constant downward pressure on every bounce/micro-rally we get.


Sp'60min

VIX'60min

A pretty bearish VIX in the immediate 1-3 hour term, not least with it having just moved to negative MACD cycle. There is certainly no sign of a turn back higher.

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From a cycle perspective, we are due to go +cycle on the MACD (blue bar histogram) within the next 2 hour. That would be suggestive of a possible continued mini bounce into early Tuesday. I strongly believe we will soon fail though.

I am still looking to re-short later today, it will be increasingly tempting in the 1375/80 zone.

More later.

12pm update - Messy Monday

Today is proving to be a real confusing mess..at least for those not keeping the bigger cycles in mind. To an outsider, it might look like this market still has underlying strength. In a way, it certainly has, but last weeks action was VERY bearish, and the fact that overnight futures did break some key levels - not least Euro/$ 1.30 is further confirmation of the new down trend.

So, as I noted earlier this morning 'everyone should be happy'. Bulls get a further chance to exit, and bears get a further chance to short. Anyone complaining about today is not looking at the bigger picture. It is often hard to see what the picture is..if you look too closely, you crazy day-traders ;)


SP'60min

IWM'60min

VIX'60min

Primary daily and weekly trends remain down. Only a move back above sp'1395 would make me bullish in the near term.

For the 'big serious money', it is an EASY trade right now. Any shorts should have a stop around 1395-1422..depending on personal preference.
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I remain looking to re-short this market before the close. Seeking Sp'1340 within a few days..or better.