12pm update - VIX floored?

The volatility index has so far almost entirely failed to show any significant show of fear in the market.

The important weekly cycle has come very close to breaking back below the important 10MA. If you look back at previous cycles on the weekly, you can see that it will often back-test the 10MA before it can surge/explode much higher. So the bears should not lose faith unless we close in the mid 16s.

VIX, weekly

VIX, 60min

Considering the bearish daily indexes, I hold to the first target on the VIX of 24, sometime next week (probably Wednesday).
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Quick update on the 60min

SP'60min

*I'd only get marginally concerned if we get above 1388/90. As I noted earlier this morning, the 'serious money' should have stops on any short positions equivalent to sp'1390/95

More later!

11am update - don't get rattled

Its opex, which is usually not the best of days to trade this nonsense. Mr Market (the unconscious entity that is it) is probably just trying to shake out all those weak bears who are again terrified at seeing a sp'10pt bounce.

Its time to be reminded of the bigger perspective

SP'daily - bullish scenario

Only a move above sp'1400 would violate the bear flag, and I doubt anyone would believe we can hit 1400 today or even early next week.

Bears should look for a daily close under the 10MA of 1377, that would be enough to lead into a more significant move lower next week.

10am update - down from here

Okay so we got the opening bounce...and now we're probably levelling out before the next wave lower.

The big question the bulls need to ask themselves, considering the increasingly bad mood out there, 'who wants to hold across the weekend?'


Sp'15min

Sp'60min

Most important of all today, bears need to see another failure to break/hold above the 10MA (currently 1382) on the hourly. A move into the 1370s would likely confirm that, and get us back into the 1360s before the close.

So, everything looks bearish...but as noted earlier, we really need to see the VIX higher, preferably 19/20. Right now, that looks a difficult target to hit, but its Friday. If the rats all decide to bail ahead of the weekend, VIX 20 is still possible.

Time to cook....more later!