Closing Brief

A very strong day for the bulls. They got the follow-through they desperately needed. Although its improtant to note we are still yet to break out of the danger zone. Only a few closes above 1405/10 can the bulls start to feel confident again.

Sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

VIX closed very poorly for the bears, arguably the last line is 16.75 tomorrow/Friday.

SP' closed at what many would call overbought..but we can still get one or two more up days before we need to level out for a few days.

*GOOG earnings were slightly better than expected, they are also doing a 2 for 1 stock split.

Much more later...especially on the Metals, and the bigger cycles on the indexes.

2pm Update - IWM/Rus'2000 index

The Rus'2000 index is having a strong day..leading the way once again.

IWM..daily

The bears have two clear lines to defend.
1. The 10MA at 81.50 - which we'll probably test Friday or Monday
2. The back-test of the October up trend...which will be around 83.50/84 next week

Clearly IWM above 85 would invalidate ALL bearish talk/outlooks,and then the door is open again for a move to 90..even 100 later in the summer.

Quick look at iwm 60min cycle

83.00 sometime early next week looks very viable - that would equate to sp'1410  -which would very much kick out almost every bear who has recently been adding new short positions.

More after the close.

12pm Update

Bulls need to PUSH PUSH PUSH. They can't let the rally slip back and reverse, or we'd be looking at a very strong reversal. So long as we remain broadly above the 10MA on the hourly cycles...the recovery is on track. Primary target would be 1395/1405 tomorrow..or early Monday. Whether we can go any higher than that....we'll just have to wait.

*Google earnings at the close..and JPM/WFC tomorrow morning.
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Sp'60min

Transport, daily, rainbow chart

Summary

Bears are clearly on the run...and as noted earlier, no one should be short right now. The fact the Transports are already showing a green candle on the rainbow chart.. that is a VERY big warning to the bears. Just 1 more up day..and we've got a real trend underway.

In the very near term...trend is up - and the daily cycles certainly support that. The monthly cycles are still a real problem though..more on that later though...after the close.