Metals Update - still looking weak

I wasn't going to bother noting the metals for at least a few days, but today's action smells VERY weak.


SLV....its looking like last August again...$22 by late May/June?

GLD: a test of the 150s looks likely. 140s by late April/May ?

Momentum on Gold is especially weak, so maybe Gold can lead the way lower within the next 1-3 weeks.
--

SHLD - double top?

Sears...getting really stuck in the high 70s

The 'chase' levels would be...

Bearish break <65
Bullish break >83
-
Considering the fundamentals, its looking a reasonable short at the moment, with tight stop of 79.

I'm not meddling with it though, for the moment, I'm sticking to just the indexes/VIX.

VIX - bizarrely weak

VIX - daily 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) chart

A pretty severe decline on what was a pretty dull Monday. No sign of a floor, no sign of any turn upward. We need to see a few blue candles, and at least 1 green candle before we have a decent go-LONG VIX/buy signal.

VIX - the big picture

Today's action was very bizarre. Maybe it was a floor, although that is certainly not yet a classic 'hollow red' reversal candle. Even a move to 22 right now would not confirm a clear break higher. Weekly momentum cycle - at current level, will now take up to 4-6 weeks to go + cycle.


UVXY - another decaying mess

Interest in this VIX instrument remains in a rapidly increasing trend. Can you imagine the volume that will occur on this thing if the market does have a few significant down days in a row?

However, as with all leveraged play things, this is just another easy way to lose money in both the near and long term. For the moment, its just decaying.


TVIX - close to putting in a new low

TVIX  almost put in a new low, volume seems to have stabilised, although that in itself is not that important. After all, it should - in theory, make almost no difference whether people are buying or selling.


VIX - near term 'Bullish market' outlook

I will still argue that even under a bullish market outlook of 1400+, VIX should at least test 24/26 in the near term. However the fact we put in a new low today after what appeared to be a solid 6 week base...its not the most pleasing sight for the bears.

Good wishes for Tuesday