Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +3.7% (USA), +3.1% (France), +2.9% (Germany), +2.6% (Australia), +2.1% (Greece), +1.6% (Japan), +1.1% (Russia), +1.0% (Spain), +0.9% (Brazil), to -1.9% (China).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets

USA - Dow

The mighty Dow climbed for the ninth month of eleven, breaking a new historic high of 28174, and settling +1005pts (3.7%) to 28051. Monthly price momentum has turned positive for the first time since Oct'2018.

Note the key 10MA at 26513, which was settled far above, and the m/t bullish trend - from the Dec'2018 low of 21712, which remains comfortably intact. Next key resistance is psy'30k, with key Fibonacci of 34430. There is little reason not to expect the latter sometime in 2020.
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Germany – DAX

The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw the DAX climb for a third month, settling +369pts (2.9%) to 13236. Monthly price momentum continues to climb, as the Jan'2018 historic high is very near. Whilst NIRP from the ECB continues to destroy the German/European financials, renewed printing (currently €20bn a month) will certainly help improve liquidity and juice most asset classes.


Japan – Nikkei

Japanese equities climbed for the eighth month of eleven, with the Nikkei settling +366pts (1.6%) to 23293. Monthly price momentum has turned positive. I would note the Oct'2018 multi-decade high of 24445.


China – Shanghai comp'

Chinese equities struggled, with the Shanghai comp' settling -57pts (1.9%) to 2871. This was the first close under the 10MA since January. I would note s/t rising trend - from the Jan'2019 low, is being tested.


Brazil – Bovespa

Brazilian equities climbed for a third month, with the Bovespa breaking a new historic high of 109671, and settling +1015pts (0.9%) to 108233. Price momentum is on the high side, but there is zero sign of a s/t ceiling/turn.


Russia - RTSI

Russian equities climbed for a third month, with the RTSI'50 settling +15pts (1.1%) to 1438. The November candle is rather spiky, and threatens a s/t top. More broadly, next resistance psy'1500, and then 1580/90s.


France – CAC

A third monthly gain for French equities, settling +175pts (3.1%) to 5905, the highest monthly settlement since June 2007.


Spain – IBEX

A third consecutive monthly gain for Spanish equities, settling +94pts (1.0%) to 9352, which was notably above the 10MA. Price momentum ticked upward, and is fractionally positive.


Australia – AORD

Australian equities climbed for the ninth month of eleven, breaking a new historic high of 6996, and settling +175pts (2.6%) 6948.


Greece - Athex

Greek equities climbed for the tenth month of eleven, settling +19pts (2.1%) to 901, the highest settlement since Nov'2014. Next resistance is psy'1k, and then the 1200s. Despite the gains this year, the Greek market is still a 'beyond horrific' -83.1% since Nov'2007.
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Summary

Nine markets were net higher for November, with one net lower.

New historic highs for the USA, Brazil, and Australia.

Nine markets are trading above their respective 10MA, with China being the exception.
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Looking ahead

Earnings: LE, CRM, MRVL, WDAY, ZS (Tues'), CPB, WORK (Wed'), TIF, AMTD, LULU, ULTA, ZM, CLDR, AOBC (Thurs'), BIG (Fri').
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Key event: NATO summit Dec'3/4th in London. US President Trump will be attending, and we can expect considerable media attention, with at least one or two press events.
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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM manu', construction
T - Vehicle sales
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM serv', EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, factory orders
F - Monthly jobs, consumer sent', wholesale trade, consumer credit
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Final note

There are just 20.5 trading days (at least for the US market) left this year. With new historic highs in the SPX, Nasdaq comp', and Dow, November was yet another month for the bulls.

Whilst the US economy is fairing better than most other countries, there are clearly massive issues out there. The uncertainty of the 2020 election is a valid concern, although if the US economy can avoid recession, with a broadly strong equity market, Trump could be expected to win a second term.

Meanwhile, we have the Fed, which has long since capitulated to the US President and Mr Market itself, with lower rates, the end of QT, and having even spun up the printers.

A s/t equity washout is due, whether into year end, or early 2020. However, any such cooling wave has to be seen as such, with far higher levels to be expected in 2020. As ever, that view would be dropped with any bearish monthly close.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Three garbage choices

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -12pts (0.4%) at 3141. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.8%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and price action naturally remained minor chop into the early 1pm close. Volatility picked up a little, with the VIX settling +7.4% at 12.62.


Today's latest quartet of political mail...

Another collection of lies and promises that won't likely be fulfilled. The Tories are still touting to get BREXIT done, wasn't THREE years enough? Labour are more loudly calling for a 'People's vote'. The Liberal Democrats are laughably playing the 'Labour can't beat the Conservatives, vote for us instead'. card. Broadly.... pathetic.


Three garbage choices

A couple of days ago, the following duly arrived...

With another election due, yours truly has received his postal ballot. You didn't think I'd vote in person, did you?

Lets consider the choices...

Liberal democrats: a party that has ZERO chance of ever wielding any real power in the UK. For you American readers... think of them as 'soft socialism'.

Conservatives: the dominant party in the current coalition government. A party that has failed to follow through on its core promise to 'deliver BREXIT, deal or no deal... by March 2019'. Just consider that since the original vote in summer 2016, they've had THREE leaders... all FAILED.

I would deem the 'tories' as 'light socialism'. Relative to the US, the Conservatives would equate to a 'marginal Democrat' party. The party has a deep history of racism, and a pathetic obsession to monitor and control people's sexual lives.

Labour: inherently remains a semi-communist party, one that despises the notion of capitalism, profit, and individual rights. Leader Corbyn was 'tight' with Chavez of Venezuela, and perhaps that is all you need to know about him.

All three of the main UK parties are fiscally contemptible. None of them particularly believe in individual rights any more, least of all the right to privacy.

There is always a fourth choice of course, the 'none of the above'... aka, straight into the shredder.
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Recent news: 4.7M new registered voters, of which 3.1M were <34yrs. Here, it is the case, the younger lean toward Labour/Lib' dem', and remaining within the EU. 

see: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-election-registrations-and-voters-swinging-labour

The mainstream remain oblivious that Labour/Corbyn might win, cancel BREXIT, or put an agreed bill to a public 'confirmatory vote'.

*the UK election is due Dec'12th, with results (appropriately) on Friday the 13th.
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Another lucky group departing the capital of geo-political chaos

The first proper sun in nine days

The crescent moon, with Saturn to the NW

Next full moon is Dec'12th

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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday's revolt

US equity indexes closed mostly higher, sp +13pts (0.4%) at 3153. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled -0.2%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and once again, it was enough to generate another set of index historic highs, in the usual trio of the SPX, Nasdaq comp', and the Dow.

The afternoon saw further algo-bot upward melt to new historic highs. Volatility broke a new multi-month low of 11.44, with the VIX settling +1.8% at 11.75.


Wednesday's revolt


"You have taken the land which is rightfully ours. Years from now, my people will be forced to live in mobile homes on reservations, your people will wear cardigans and drink highballs. We will sell our bracelets by the roadsides, you will play golf and enjoy hot hors d'oeuvres. My people will have pain and degradation, your people will have stick-shifts. The gods of my tribe have spoken. They have said, Do not trust the Pilgrims, especially Sarah Miller.

... and for all these reasons, I have decided to scalp you and burn your village to the ground" - Wednesday Addams.

On that note... happy Thanksgiving.
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99.98% horror

0.02% sun

Goodnight from London
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*the next post will likely appear Friday, around 1.30pm EST.

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One day closer to Thanksgiving

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 3140. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled +0.2%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but it was enough for the SPX and Nasdaq comp' to break new historic highs, with the Dow following shortly after. The afternoon saw some chop, but with a major rebalancing, another set of new hist' highs were broken.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling -2.8% at 11.54. 
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The untouched reality

... and how it feels

Goodnight from London
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Straight into the garbage

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +23pts (0.7%) at 3133. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%.  Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +1.5%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and it was enough to generate new historic highs in the SPX and Nasdaq comp'.

Naturally...

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Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling -3.8% at 11.87. The s/t cyclical setup favours a cooling wave ahead of the Thanksgiving break.


Straight into the garbage

This morning's political mail....

Some comedy from the Conservative (coalition ruling) party...

The truth is that the UK economy has been borderline recession for some years. Public finances are a disaster, with monstrous fiscal deficits since 2008. Many in the UK will recognise that the Conservatives touting higher spending promises on healthcare and policing is grossly hypocritical... not that Labour or the Liberal Democrats have any better ideas.

*The election is due Dec'12th, with results Friday the 13th :)

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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -0.8% (Transports), -0.5% (Dow), -0.4% (NYSE comp'), -0.3% (SPX), to -0.2% (Nasdaq comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp'500 broke a new historic high of 3127, but settled the week -10pts (0.3%) at 3110. Weekly price momentum continues to strengthen. The s/t setup leans to further downside, at least to the next gap of 3050/36.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high of 8589, but settled -20pts (0.2%) at 8519. First soft support is the 50dma in the low 8200s, some 5% lower.


Dow

The mighty Dow broke a new historic high of 28090, settling -129pts (0.5%) to 27875. Price momentum is cyclically on the higher side. First support in the 28400/300s.


NYSE comp'

The master index saw a high of 13508, but settled -52pts (0.4%) at 13440. The Jan'2018 high of 13637 is very near.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, cooled for a second week, settling -91pts (0.8%) to 10785.
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Summary

All five US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.

The Transports lead the way lower, with the Nasdaq comp' most resilient.

The SPX, Nasdaq comp', and Dow broke new historic highs.

YTD price performance:

The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead for the year, currently +28.4%. The SPX is +24.1%, with the Dow +19.5%. The NYSE comp' is +18.2%, with the Transports +17.6%.
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Looking ahead

It will be Thanksgiving holiday week, with effectively only three and a half days of trading.

Earnings:

M: NAT, HPE, PANW, AMBA, PVH
T: BBY, MOMO, DLTR, DELL, ANF, ADI, CBRL VMW, HPQ,
W: DE, LYG,
T:
F:

Econ-data:

M - Fed chair Powell will be speaking (7pm EST).
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA house price index, new homes sales, consumer con', Rich' fed
W - Durable goods orders, GDP (Q3 second print), Chicago PMI (9.45am), weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, EIA Pet', Fed Beige book (2pm).

T - CLOSED for Thanksgiving

F - Fed balance sheet (4.30pm).  EARLY CLOSING 1pm EST.
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Final note

Do you remember what the mainstream view was this past spring? It was the notion of a 'second half recovery'. What happened to that? Ohh yeah, the econ-data and earnings continued to weaken, with the Fed ending QT, cutting rates, and spinning up the printers.

Now the mainstream view is of 'a manufacturing pick up in 2020'. For now, there is zero reason to believe in that. Freight/shipping data doesn't support that rosy view.

However, that sure doesn't mean I see equities as anything other than mid/long term bullish. The Fed can be expected to start buying T-bonds and Corp' bonds at some point in 2020. That will help to juice the asset prices even more. There is the matter of the overnight REPOs. Maybe that will regularly total $250bn, even $500bn by late 2020. Someone out there has been in distress lately. Who it is.. the fed won't say, at least until late 2021.

To be clear, whilst the s/t equity setup threatens sig' downside, I can't take any of it seriously unless we have a bearish monthly close. Yours truly holds to the monthly 10MA as the line in the sand. Right now, that stands at sp'2929. November is clearly going to settle above that, and I'd imagine December will too.

As for the US/China trade matter, I don't expect 'phase'1' before year end. If correct, it would be the excuse for an equity washout, before rebounding once again.


The UK and US elections

There is also the matter of the UK election - due Dec'12th. If the Conservatives fail to get a clear majority, then an eventual BREXIT bill will likely have a popular vote tagged onto it, and by now, you should know my view on how that will play out.

The USA has its own election of course, and not just the Nov'2020 main event, but the process of selecting the Democrat nominee. There appears a considerable (if subtle) push to see Pete Buttigieg become the challenger to Trump.

Obama has effectively deemed Warren and Sanders as 'too far left'. Biden... no, he will drop out soon enough. Gabbard and Yang remain largely black-listed by the mainstream media, and have no chance. The other candidates don't even merit a mention.

So.... Buttigieg vs Trump. Clearly, Trump will need a non-recessionary economy and a stable/rising equity market to remain in power. In any case, from this side of the Atlantic, it makes for some fascinating popcorn entertainment.

These remain ever more crazy times... in the twilight zone. If you can remain at least semi-level headed, you're ahead of 97% of the rest.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Minor gains into the weekend

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 3110. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow +0.4% The Transports settled +1.0%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky, with the SPX slipping to 3099 in late morning. The afternoon saw a recovery to minor gains.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX melting into the weekend, settling -6.0% at 12.34. S/t outlook favours the equity bears. Today's SPX daily candle was black, with s/t price structure of a bear flag. Basic target is the 3050/36 zone, which should equate to a VIX spike to 16/17s.
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Meanwhile...

The following guy didn't seem to know that Tesla usually sells off after a product reveal...



On any basis, its pretty disturbing, as he lost more money on a single trade, than some earn in a low-end job, in an entire year.

As for Tesla's Cybertruck...


Its certainly a provocative design, but maybe they'll make it less boxy, before production is supposed to begin in late 2021.

Corporate lesson of the day: If you're going to test the strength of the glass, do it at the end of the presentation. Seeing Elon stand there, trying to continue in front of a smashed product.... not great.
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Today's political mail...

.. was from the Liberal Democrats, who are playing the 'think of the children' card, along with promises to spend more (via debt... no doubt). In any case, they can't win, but they could form a coalition with Corbyn/Labour.
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No sun or moon today, and so I shall end today with the best of humanity...

Just another day on ISS

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com