A bullish end to November

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts at 2647. with the Dow +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.0% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 11.28. The m/t outlook remains powerfully bullish, and its notable that today's high of sp'2657 was a mere 26pts (1.0%) from my year end target of 2683.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built rather significant gains into the afternoon, with a quintet of index historic highs: Dow, sp, nyse comp', R2K, and the Transports. There was some latter day cooling from sp'2657 to '41, but having climbed 100pts across 11 trading days, it was a bullish end to the month.

Despite equities breaking new highs, the VIX actually continued to claw upward, seeing an intra high of 12.05, and settling in the low 11s. It was notably the 5th daily gain of the past 6 sessions.

We have five downside gaps in the sp'500, and normally those could be expected to fill. However, there are very decisive bullish breakouts in a number of key stocks, and its suggestive we won't even retrace to the 2600 threshold in the immediate term. More broadly, the 2700s are now a viable target before year end.

I recognise some will deem recent price action 'Euphoria', and will call (yet another) mid/long term top, but I'd argue they have no perspective, nor seem aware of price structure in the US or any other world equity market.


The monthly close

The sp'500 settled higher for an EIGHTH consecutive month, +72pts (2.8%) to 2647. The monthly RSI is now at 83, which is pretty astounding, and even higher than levels seen in 2013/14.
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... and that is how November settled in my part of the world.

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An exceptionally mixed day

US equity indexes closed exceptionally mixed, sp -1pt at 2626, with the Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 3.3% and 0.4% respectively. VIX settled +6.7% at 10.70. Near term outlook threatens a washout to sp'2572/64, before another surge that should take the market to 2650/700 by year end.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but it was enough to generate new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500. However, there was discernible weakness within tech in early morning. With key technical breaks, things spiralled lower in stocks such as MU, NVDA, and NFLX, and that pinned the main market back to some extent.

There was contrasting strength in energy, retail, and financials. Some stocks saw key bullish breakouts (BAC, PSX), whilst others (HD) simply pushed to new historic highs. The NYSE comp', R2K, and Trans' broke new highs in the afternoon, making for another quintet of index highs.

Volatility did see a kick upward, with the VIX settling higher for the fourth day of five. If sp'2570/60s, we could (in theory) see VIX in the mid/upper teens. More broadly though, the sp'2650/700 zone still looks viable into year end, as earnings and the econ-data continue to come in broadly fine.

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The Powell

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +25pts at 2627. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively. VIX settled +1.6% at 10.03. Near term outlook offers cooling to 2572/64, but more broadly, the original year end target of 2683 is within range.


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Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and built broad gains into the early afternoon. A North Korean missile launch spooked the market from 2621 to 2610, but then tax chatter saw the market rebound straight to new historic highs. Of the six indexes I regularly highlight, five broke new historic highs. On any basis.. it was a very bullish day.

Market volatility saw a swing from a morning low of 9.53 to 10.31, settling in the low 10s. A sporadic burst to the 12/13s is not a stretch, as the sp'500 now has four downside gaps to fill/tag.
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As for Powell...

As I noted some time ago, does it really matter who is leading Print Central? Regardless of who leads, we know more printing is coming, and eventually, the serious threat they'll move to negative rates to inspire demand in the 'consumer based economy'.

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Choppy start

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt at 2601. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled +2.1% at 9.87. Near term outlook offers s/t cooling, but no lower than sp'2572/64. The 2640/50s appear due before year end.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week in micro chop mode, but it was still enough to generate two new historic highs in the sp' and nasdaq comp'. There was a little cooling into the afternoon, with most indexes settling on the weaker side.

Volatility saw a little burst at the open, but cooled back to settle in the upper 9s.Things can only get more dynamic as the week proceeds, yes?
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Turn the lights out, 1080x, full screen, and watch.


Yours truly makes a guest appearence at the start.

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Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 1.8% (R2K), 1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), to 0.9% (sp'500, Dow). Near term outlook threatens a brief retrace, but the sp'2640/50s appear highly probable into year end.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

After two consecutive fractional net weekly declines, the sp'500 is back on the rise, with a net weekly gain of 23pts (0.9%) to 2602. There was a notable new historic high of 2604. Note the upper bollinger, which is offering the 2625s, and that number will jump another 6-7pts at next Monday's open. By year end, the 2640/50s will be technically viable.

Best guess: near term weakness, perhaps as low as 2572/64, before another surge into year end, very likely to the 2640/50s. My year original year end target of 2683 looks to be 30/40pts out of range. More broadly, sp'3K is a valid target for late spring 2018. 

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close under the monthly key 10MA - currently at 2458, and that number will jump around 35pts at next Friday's Dec'1st open.
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Nasdaq comp'

The tech climbed for a second week, +1.6% at 6889, with a new hist' high of 6890. The 7000s seem a given before year end. The 8000s are a valid target for late spring/early summer 2018. It remains strange that hardly anyone dares speculate with any talk of 'Nas' 10k', even given another 2-3 years.


Dow

The mighty Dow climbed 199pts (0.9%) to 23557, with a notable new hist' high of 23617. Note the upper bollinger in the 23900s, and that will likely be in the 24000s within 1-2 weeks. Just consider that another 25% up in 2018 will give Dow 30K. That will of course need almost everything to go right, not least continued US/world growth, further rate hikes, and at least some degree of commodity inflation.


NYSE comp'

The master index climbed 1.0% to 12421. Upper bollinger is offering the 12600/700s within the near term. The 13000s look out of range before year end. Things would only turn provisionally bearish with any closes <12k.


R2K

The second market leader climbed a significant 1.8% to 1519, with a notable new hist' high of 1524. Upper bollinger is offering the 1551s, and that number will come rather close to the 1600 threshold by year end. As I have said across this year, talk of 'R2K @ 2K' is valid.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed 1.4% to 9620. The 10K threshold is the obvious target for the next push upward. Whether we settle the year a little above or below it, seems frankly not that important. Just keep in mind the tranny settled 2016 at 9043, so we're currently net higher by 6.4%.
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Summary

It was a bullish week for the US equity market with four of the main indexes - Dow, sp'500, nasdaq comp', and the R2K breaking new historic highs.

All indexes have at least 3-4% of downside buffer before their m/t trends from early 2016 would be challenged.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the majority of indexes see a monthly close below their respective monthly 10MAs, and that looks unlikely any time soon.
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Looking ahead

M - New home sales
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed'
W - Q3 GDP (2nd est'), pending home sales, EIA Pet' report, Fed beige book
T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI
F - Vehicle sales, PMI/ISM manu', construction

*There are a truck load of fed officials on the loose, notably...

Powell (Tue' 10am), nomination hearing before the US Senate. That will likely be covered live.

Yellen (Wed' 10am) speaking to the US House on the econ' outlook. That will last at least two hours, and will no doubt garner blanket coverage on the financial networks. Yellen's last key appearance will be the press conf' for the FOMC of Dec'13th, when rates will be hiked another 25bps to a new target range of 1.25-1.50%.
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Thanksgiving break

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp -1.9pts at 2597. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.5% at 9.88. Near term outlook offers some cooling, with a basic target of sp'2589/82. More broadly, the 2640/50s appear probable before year end.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, with two notable new index historic highs in the Nasdaq comp' and R2K. There was a touch of weakness in the afternoon.

Volatility broke a new cycle low of 9.32, and settled in the upper 9s. A little burst to the 11/12s would not be a surprise. More broadly though, the key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year. We've not seen a year without VIX >20 since 2005.
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A windswept November's late afternoon

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For my American readers out there... Happy Thanksgiving. To the rest of you.... enjoy the day off.

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The 2600s

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts at 2599 (intra high 2601). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 1.0%. VIX settled -8.6% at 9.73. Near term outlook offers subdued price action across pre-Thanksgiving Wednesday and the Friday half-session. The original year end target of 2683 is just about within range.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built broad gains into the afternoon. There was a quartet of new index hist' highs in the sp'500, nasdaq comp', dow, and r2K. Market volatility was naturally ground lower, with the VIX settling lower for a fourth consecutive day in the mid 9s.


The original year end target of 2683...

Today's high of 2601 was just 82pts (3.2%) shy of my original target, a number that was derided by everyone at the start of the year.
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The real irony of today was Goldman...

If commodities break upward (look for CRB >197s), then 3k will be seen within spring 2018. But hey, few want to hear that.

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... but you won't. Click back to zerohedge.com or cnbc.com, as fast as you can.

A little chop

US equity indexes closed on the positive side, sp +3pts at 2582. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled -6.8% at 10.65. Near term outlook offers a little cooling to 2572/64, but with a secure low of 2557. More broadly, the 2600s remain on the menu.


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Summary

US equities began the Thanksgiving/holiday week on a fractionally weak note, but leaned a little higher into the mid afternoon. The closing hour saw some fractional cooling, as a moderate down wave to 2572/64 is due. Broadly though, it should be clear, the 2600s are still on the menu before year end.

Market volatility was ground lower for a third day, with the VIX settling in the mid 10s. A brief pop to the 12s is probable, but even the 13s look a stretch at any point this week. As things are, this looks to be a year where the VIX won't break the key 20 threshold, and we've not seen that since since 2005.

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Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a rather mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.2% (R2K), -0.1% (sp'500), to -0.3% (Dow). Near term outlook offers a little chop, but leaning upward into the 2600s. The original year end target of 2683 will be a stretch.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp' settled fractionally net lower for a second consecutive week, -3pts at 2578. There is a clear break of soft rising trend that stretches back to the Aug' low of 2417. The Wed' low of 2557 does look rather secure though, and considering broader market price action and structure, a push into the 2600s looks possible as early as next week.

Best guess: a little weakness next Monday, but then a push into the 2600s, certainly by end month. By year end, the market has a fair chance of trading within the 2650/700 zone. That will clearly need almost everything to go right, with a rate hike, and oil sustainably around/above $60.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close, which to me, would equate to a monthly close under the monthly 10MA (currently at 2456). That number is set to jump by 35pts at the Dec'1st open. So, unless 2017 settles under 2490 or so, the m/t bullish trend can be said to remain intact.
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Nasdaq comp'

The tech saw a net weekly gain of 0.5%, and with a notable new historic high of 6806. Upper weekly bollinger will be offering the 6900s before end month. The 7000s are due in December, with the 8000s a valid target for late spring 2018. Broadly, Q3 earnings were unquestionably good, and in some cases (MU, INTC, CSCO) outright superb. There is little reason to expect the current m/t trend not to hold for some considerable time to come.


Dow

The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, settling -0.3% at 23358, but that is still very close to recent hist' highs. Indeed, the upper weekly bollinger will be offering the 24000s in December. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for a second week, but its arguably just cooling like August or March. Note the weekly 10MA that has held since April. No price action <23k can be expected for the remainder of the year.


NYSE comp'

The 'master' index settled net lower for the third week of four, -0.2% at 12302. Things would arguably only turn bearish if <12k, and that looks very unlikely before year end. Upper bollinger will be offering the 12600s before end November. The 13000s look a stretch by year end.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, was the leader this week, with a net gain of 1.2% to 1492. There was an intra week low of 1454, which is around a rather important price threshold, that stretches back to July. With the Thurs-Friday rebound, the bulls can be looking for new hist' highs (>1514) into early December.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Trans, settled lower for a fourth consecutive week, -0.2% at 9483. The tranny has seen a clear initial failure to break and hold the giant 10k threshold. Despite the bearish run, things really only turn bearish <9300, and considering the broader collective of indexes, that looks unlikely. Arguably, its now merely a case of whether the tranny settles the year a little above.... or below 10k. I'm leaning on the former.
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Summary

A mixed week for US equity indexes, with minor weakness in the Dow and Trans, but a sig' gain in the R2K.

The US market is still regularly generating new highs, with this week seeing a new hist' high in the Nasdaq comp'.

Most indexes have 3-5% of downside buffer before the m/t bullish trend from early 2016 would be challenged.
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Looking ahead

It will be a very light 3.5 day trading week.

Earnings: INTU (Mon'), LOW (Tues'), DE (Wed')

M - Leading indicators
T - Existing home sales
W - Durable goods orders, weekly jobs, consumer sent', EIA Pet', FOMC mins (2pm)

T - CLOSED for Thanksgiving
F - EARLY CLOSING at 1pm EST.
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Choppy opex weakness

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -6pts at 2578. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.1% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -2.8% at 11.43. Near term outlook offers a little weakness to around 2572. More broadly, the 2600s are due, whether before or shortly after Thanksgiving, it should make no difference to most.


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Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and leaned on the weaker side into the late afternoon.

Despite equities leaning weak, the VIX opened lower, and stayed negative across the day. Its arguably a sign of underlying capital market confidence. The key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range for the rest of the year. Near term offers a little equity weakness to begin next week, but not much below sp'2572.
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes
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Naturally rebounding

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts at 2585. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 1.6%. VIX settled -10.4% at 11.76. Near term outlook offers a touch of cooling to the mid sp'2570s, but with the 2600s due before end month.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built broad gains into the afternoon.

It was notable that once again the mainstream have seen their mood swing from effectively 'on suicide watch' to 'everything is fine again'. We're only in the sp'2500s, what happens when we're in the 3000s next year, and we drop 1% at the open? Who at CNBC, Bloomberg, or Fox Business, is responsible for calling the fed to request at least a press release threatening QE4 ?

Market volatility was naturally whacked at the open, and ground down to the mid 11s in early afternoon. With a retrace to the mid sp'2570s, VIX 12.50/13s seem due, before another wave to the 9s. Whether that is before or after the Thanksgiving break.... is of no importance.
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Appropriate.

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