Starting the week subdued

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +2pts at 2369. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 12.09. Near term outlook offers high threat of a mid term 'euphoria' top... whether inspired via the SOTU, or the SNAP IPO. The wild card remains the energy sector... which is due renewed upside.


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Summary

*notable new (if fractional) historic highs of sp'2371 and Dow 20851.
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The week began on a relatively subdued note, as the equity bears remain powerless, but neither are the bulls especially confident enough to buy big ahead of the SOTU.

For now, VIX remains subdued in the sub-teens, but traders are increasingly picking up March/April call blocks, as some believe the market is close to a key short/mid term top. VIX clearly won't remain at these levels forever.

Something to watch tomorrow - as February comes to a close... can VIX see the 13s? We've not seen the teens at all this month.. which would be the first time since June 2014. Its notable that the following month saw VIX 17s... with a spike high of 31.06 in Oct'. For now though, even the key 20 threshold looks a stretch, even if the market retraces to around sp'2250 by early April.
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Yours truly has been even more busy than usual lately, and is now trying to churn out reports on various sectors. I decided to start with a personal favourite... the Gold Miners.

For details see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/research-reports.html

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a somewhat mixed week for the US equity market, with net weekly changes ranging from -0.8% (Trans), +0.1% (Nasdaq comp'), to +1.0% (Dow). Near term outlook offers another push higher of at least 1-2%. If the energy sector starts to participate, then the US market will continue to broadly climb into late April/early May.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

It was a fifth consecutive net weekly gain for the sp'500 (the best run since March 2016), with a new historic high of 2368, settling +16pts (0.7%) at 2367. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a third week, and is clearly on the high side. The key 10MA is at 2295, and will be in the low 2300s across early March. Upper bollinger is at 2387, and will be offering the 2400s next week.

Best guess: further upside to around 2400. There will be high threat of a 5% retrace across March/April. Rising trend will be around 2250 in early April, and thus no price action in the low 2200s can be expected this spring/summer.

If the energy sector joins the 'main market party', then there will be no retrace until at least May, and by then, the market will be pushing for the 2500s.


Nasdaq comp'

The tech saw a fractional net weekly gain of 6pts (0.1%), settling at 5845, with a notable new historic high of 5867. First rising trend will be around 5600 in early April, with the 10MA offering support in the 5700s in early March. Core support is at the giant 5k threshold, and frankly, that looks secure for the rest of the year. Talk of 7000s by year end should have already begun.


Dow

The mighty Dow keeps on pushing, with a third consecutive net weekly gain of 197pts (1.0%), settling at 20821, having broken a new historic high of 20840. The 21000s are due in the near term, and its interesting that there is increasing chatter of a straight run to the 22000s.. even 23000s by mid/late summer. If the Dow can keep pushing to the 21250/500 zone, then first soft support at the giant 20k threshold will hold across the spring.. if not the rest of the year. Talk of a year end 'hyper bullish' close within the 24/25k zone can begin.


NYSE comp'

The master index saw a moderate net weekly gain of 0.3%, but also managed a new historic high of 11590. The upper weekly bollinger is already offering the 11700s, with the 12000s seemingly now viable by late April/May. Things only turn provisionally bearish if the NYSE comp' is under 11k.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, saw a net weekly decline of -0.4%, but there was still a new historic high of 1410. Its notable the upper bollinger is offering the 1470s, and that will increase to the 1500s by mid March. Things only turn provisionally bearish with price action under the 1300 threshold.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, was the laggard this week, with a net weekly decline of -0.8%. The tranny was the only index that didn't break a new historic high this week. Of course, one net weekly decline doesn't negate the broader trend, which is unquestionably still very bullish. Upper weekly bollinger will be offering the giant 10k level in March... which if achieved, would be a massive achievement for the equity bulls, with the Trans having climbed from a March 2009 low of 2134.
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Summary

The US market continues to broadly climb, with the Dow now leading the way higher.

All indexes are still regularly breaking new historic highs.

The market could fall 2-3%, and that would only test the (still rising) weekly 10MAs.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the Nov2016 lows are taken out. Other world markets (most are mid term bullish), are highly suggestive there will be no retrace in the US market until at least May.
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Looking ahead

M - Durable goods orders, pending home sales,
T - GDP (second estimate), intl' trade, Case-Schiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con', Richmond fed'

*President Trump will present the 'State of the Union' address in the evening. That will be an immensely important event, not just for the US.. but the world. The speech should at least raise the issues of infrastructure and tax policy/regulations, which the market will extremely interested in.

W - Vehicle sales, pers' income/outlays, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA report, Fed beige book
T - Weekly jobs
F - PMI/ISM serv' sector

*there are a considerable number of fed officials on the loose, notably Bullard (Tues' evening), and Yellen (Fri', 1pm).

**It is highly likely that SNAP will be listed in the latter half of the week. That will naturally garner a lot of media/market attention, and it'll be important for the equity bulls to see that IPO proceed smoothly.
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Gold Miners Report

For those with an interest in the gold miners and precious metals, I have something new to offer.

For details: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/research-reports.html


--
As ever, if you value these posts, then subscribe to me!

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will appear Monday at 7pm EST

The sun has not set... yet

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2367. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -2.0% at 11.47. Near term outlook is for renewed upside of another 1-2%... as the US equity market remains super strong.


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Summary

The US market opened moderately lower, but sp'2352 - with VIX 12.59, was all the equity bears could manage. The daily close was actually pretty bullish, as the Dow managed to close net higher for an eleventh consecutive day.

The week as a whole was unquestionably bullish, with 5 of the 6 main indexes breaking new historic highs. Only the Transports was leaning weak.
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As for the sunset...

For London city, it was a sunny end to the week, and a pleasant improvement after yesterday's winter storm 'Doris'.

The same is true for the equity market.. the sun is still shining in equity bull land. Sure, a basic retrace of around 5% will be a threat from early March onward. However, energy is a serious threat to any such cooling, as the sector is overdue another push higher. Clearly, oil/nat' gas prices are going to be a key variable in that regard. Will the market start to price in 'summer driving season' soon? Is that going to be the excuse for a continued straight up rally across March, and much of April?

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Saturday at 12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Chronically low volatility

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, sp +1pt at 2363 (intra high 2368). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -0.3% at 11.71. Near term outlook is bullish into early March, as the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s are well within range.


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Summary

It was another day for the equity bulls, as despite some notable weakness in the Trans and R2K, the Dow and sp'500 broke new historic highs. For now, there is still zero reason to expect any threat of a short term top until the latter half of next week.. aka... March!
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No teens this month

As things are, we've still not even seen the low teens this month. The last time that happened was June 2014.

VIX, monthly

For the moment, there is absolutely zero sign of the post election equity hyper-ramp maxing out. By default.. until the market stops going up, the VIX is going to remain extremely subdued.

Goodnight from London

Equity bears remain powerless

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2362. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +1.5% at 11.74. Near term outlook offers little to the equity bears, as the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s look due in early March.


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Summary

It was a pretty dull day in the market. The open was a little weak, but as has been the case for almost four months, the equity bears can't muster anything significant. The Dow did break another new historic high... settling fractionally higher for a ninth consecutive day.. equalling the run from last July.

VIX naturally remains very subdued in the sub-teens. Another foray to single digit VIX seems probable.

Goodnight from London

Half a decade

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +14pts @ 2365. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled +0.7% at 11.57. Near term outlook offers a touch of chop, but the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s appear due into early March. The US - and most other world markets, remain 'scary strong'.

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Summary

The short week began as last week ended... on a bullish note. There is little else to add, that I didn't already outline in the weekend post.
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Five years old

Its now half a decade since I started regular online postings about the world's most twisted casino.

As well as Flamingo, MM, and a wheel barrow of others who prefer emails, I do also want to thank a few of those people who first linked back to me in 2012, not least Chartrambler, Joe McVerry, and the now elusive 'Albertarocks'. There are others, some of whom are still listed within my blog links lists.

Things have greatly changed here of course, since I took my intraday posting to a subscription basis last May. To my mini legion of paying subscribers/supporters, I owe a great deal. That has been ticking along okay, and I'm still kinda surprised I finally got around to taking that very big personal leap.

I intend to eventually 're-brand' both my public and private sites to something that better describes me. For the moment, the increasingly aged and quirky online moniker of 'Permabear Doomster' still lives... but it won't be around forever. 
--


In other news...

The overly loud Mr C. has finally offered an ES target of 2650-2727 to be seen before year end. Interestingly, my own target of 2683 is right in the centre of that.



I continue to recognise that some of you get real pissy when I highlight anything from Oscar, but he has been posting on youtube for over a decade, and you have to respect him for at least that much.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was another bullish week for the US equity market, with net weekly gains ranging from 1.8% (Nasdaq comp'), 1.5% (sp'500), to 0.8% (R2K). Near term outlook offers another 2% higher into early March, which would equate to Dow 21k and the sp'2400s.


Lets take our regular look at six of the US indexes

sp'500

A fourth consecutive net weekly gain, +35pts (1.5%), settling at 2351. Upper bollinger is at 2367, with the key 10MA at 2284. Core rising trend will be 2250 in early April, and it would now seem that will be the best the bears can hope for, before the market powers upward to the 2500/600s this summer/autumn.

Best guess: further upside of 2% to around the 2400 threshold in early March, before a 5% retrace to 2250. No sustained price action under 2200 for the rest of the year.
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Nasdaq comp'

The tech continues to lead the way higher, with a fourth consecutive net weekly gain, +104pts (1.8%) to a new historic high of 5838. The 6000s remain on track, and talk can begin of the 7000s by late summer/autumn. The giant psy' level of 5K looks secure for a very long time.


Dow

The mighty Dow saw the third significant net weekly gain of the past four weeks, +354pts (1.7%), at 20624, having seen a new historic high of 20639. The 21k threshold is now a valid target into early March. From there, a 5% retrace will see the giant psy' level of 20k act as first support. Secondary support of 19k looks like it will hold for the rest of the year. A year end target of 23/24k is realistic.


NYSE comp'

The master index climbed for a fourth consecutive week, settling +1.2% @ 11510, having broken a new historic high of 11525. The upper bollinger will be offering the 11700s next week, which is around 2% higher. The Oct'2016 low of 10289 is fading far.. far below.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, settled higher for a fourth week, +11pts (0.8%) at 1399. With a new historic high of 1405, price structure of a giant bull flag has been fully confirmed. The upper bollinger is offering the 1460s, which is another 4% higher. The 1500s look out of range until the broader market first retraces by around 5%.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, settled higher for a second consecutive week, +1.1% @ 9495, having broken a new historic high of 9566. First soft support is the 9k threshold, and its entirely possible that will hold with a main market retrace. Trans 10k looks a given this spring, with 12/13k a valid target for year end.
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Summary

All US equity indexes continue to broadly rise, regularly breaking new historic highs.

The market could see a retrace of 5%, and it would not even test core rising trend, or the key monthly 10MA.

Most US equity indexes look to have a viable 15/20% of upside by year end. That will arguably require 3 rate hikes (May, Sept, and Dec'), WTIC oil >$60, and no major geo-political turmoil.
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Looking ahead

There will be earnings from the retail sector, including: HD and M (Tuesday), JWN, GPS (Thurs'), JCP (Fri')

other earnings: TSLA - Wed', CHK (Thurs')
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It will be a short four day week, and there isn't much scheduled.

M - CLOSED
T - PMI manu'
W - Existing home sales, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - weekly jobs, FHFA house price index, PMI serv', EIA report
F - New home sales, consumer sent'

*there are five fed officials on the loose, but since the election of Trump, the market places far less importance on their comments.
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If you like these posts, and think I'm worth at least $1 per trading day, then subscribe, which will give you access to my continued intraday posts.

Enjoy the three day break
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear Tuesday at 7pm EST

The long weekend

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +3pts at 2351. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled -2.3% at 11.49. Near term outlook offers renewed upside across next week and into early March, with a viable upside target of the 2375/400 zone.


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Summary

It was a day of minor chop... but that was natural, as it was opex.. ahead of a three day weekend. Most notable.. the Nasdaq comp', which managed a new historic high into the close.

Volatility remains subdued, and it was almost surprising that VIX did not settle the week in the 10s.

Goodnight from London
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The weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes.

JPM also talking about acceleration

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -2pts at 2347.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% @ 11.76. Near term outlook remains super strong, with the sp'2375/400 zone viable in early March.


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Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but again, that was enough to generate another set of historic highs in the Dow, Nasdaq comp', and NYSE comp'.

Despite the little equity wave lower in the morning, VIX was still unable to see the low teens. Volatility remains exceptionally subdued, as the US capital market is super confident. That was itself reflected in the latest Phil' fed number of 43.3 - the best number since 1984! It is indeed entirely reflective of the societal/financial shift that has occured with the election of Trump.
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Mainstream talk of acceleration

Yesterday I highlighted the issue of acceleration in the market. Today, the lunchtime show on clown finance TV, saw Hunter of JPM touting much the same...

Indeed, most should recognise that recent price action is an acceleration. Hunter noted the next key level is around sp'2450.

Could we hit sp'2450 before the anticipated main market retrace of 5%? Yes, although even I find it difficult to see the market keep pushing another 5% before a mini washout. Broadly of course.. all such things are irrelevant, as the US - and other world markets, are super strong.

Goodnight from an accelerated London

The bullish train accelerates

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts @ 2349. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled +11.4% @ 11.97. Near term outlook offers nothing to the bears, as underlying price pressure remains 'scary strong'. Next realistic opportunity of a turn is likely no earlier than first week of March, after the President's SOTU speech.


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Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs in all six of the main indexes I regularly highlight.

VIX was significantly net higher, but that was almost entirely because front month VIX has rolled from Feb' to March... which is always going to be inherently higher.
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As for the train....

Watching clown finance TV this lunch time, it was particularly amusing to see further talk about how 'higher rates are GOOD'. It never fails to surprise me how the mainstream seem to be oblivious to what they used to say in the recent past.

Remember how last October the talk was about whether the Fed would dare hike at the Dec' FOMC? Of course, the same people never saw a Trump victory, and still seem to have ZERO perspective on the giant breakouts in financials, copper... and a number of other things.

So.. the bullish train continues, and with few willing sellers, underlying price momentum is accelerating. Sure, a 5% retrace is still on the menu this spring, but we're now barely 2% from the 2400s.

Here is a scary thought... the sp'2500s are now roughly 6% away. My end year target of 2683 doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?

Goodnight from London

Even Yellen can't spook equities

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +9pts at 2337. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% @ 10.74. Near term outlook threatens another moderate wave lower to around 2312, but broadly... the 2340/50s look due by first week of March.


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Summary

The market saw some early morning weakness, but once again.. it was nothing of any significance. Yellen spoke about a fair few things, including interest rates and broadly subdued long term economic growth, but it wasn't enough to spook equities.

Indeed, by early afternoon, the US market was already breaking a new set of historic index highs, as whilst there are few buyers.. there are far fewer willing sellers.

Most still fail to see the societal/financial change that has occurred since the election of Trump. Rather than the market focusing on what the fed officials are saying, we're in a new era... one where attention is focused on actual earnings and econ-data. This is a good thing, right?
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I recognise that some of you believe a massive long term high is due to be put in within the near term, but go stare at this for a few minutes...

Brazil, monthly

The implications for the US... and many other world equity markets should be clear by now.

Goodnight from London

Super bullish start to the week

US equity indexes closed broadly higher for a fifth consecutive day, sp +12pts @ 2328. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. VIX settled +2.0% at 11.07. Near term outlook threatens some cooling, but the bigger weekly cycles (especially for the R2K) argue for continued upside into early March.


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Summary

US equities began the week on what was unquestionably a super bullish note. Five of the six main indexes that I regularly highlight broke new historic highs. The rogue index... Trans, looks set to follow tomorrow... or later in the week.

VIX naturally remains subdued.. as most are now resigned to the 11/10s for at least another week or two.

Those of you who have been paying attention to the R2K, should not be surprised by the ongoing upside.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US monthly indexes

The US equity market continues to broadly climb, regularly breaking new historic highs. Near term outlook offers a 5% retrace, but that will do nothing to dent the primary bullish trend. As things are, the market looks set for broad upside across the year, with the sp'2500/600s a realistic year end target.


Lets take our monthly look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Currently, the sp' is net higher for a fourth consecutive month, with a new historic high just this past Friday of 2319. It is notable this is just 1pt above the upper bollinger. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick higher, and is now on the moderately high side. Note the 10MA @ 2186, and that will jump to the low 2200s at the March 1st' open.

Best guess: Near term upside of around 1-2% to the 2340/50s, before an overdue retrace of around 5%. No sustained price action <2200 for the remainder of the year. My year end target of 2683 remains valid, but that will require a fair number of things, such as WTIC oil >$60, if not 70/75, and three interest rate hikes of 25bps
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Nasdaq comp'

The tech sector continues to lead the way higher, with a new historic high of 5743. The 6000s look viable by June/July, even if the main market retraces by around 5% across March/April. Core support is the giant psy' level of 5K, with the key 10MA already somewhat above that in the 5200s. It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' is currently 353% higher from the March 2009 low of 1265.


Dow

The mighty Dow is currently net higher for a fourth consecutive month, having broken a new historic high of 20298. The key 10MA will soon be in the 19000s, and on balance, no price action <19k can be expected for the rest of the year. By July, key rising trend will be around the giant psy' level of 20k. A year end close within the 23-24k zone is a very viable target.


NYSE comp'

The NYSE composite continues to climb, with a new historic high of 11390. The election low of 10281 is now a clear 10% to the downside. The key 10MA will soon be in the 11000s, and will act as first soft support across the spring. The 12000s look a viable target this summer, with the 13000s by year end.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, has been in an exceptionally tight trading range since early Dec'2016, but is now just 4pts shy of the Dec' high of 1392. Near term offers upside to the 1425/50 zone, before a probable retrace of around 5%. First soft support will be the 1300 threshold, where the 10MA will soon be. R2K to the 1500s looks probable this summer. A year end close in the 1700s is a valid target. It remains curious how virtually no one is discussing 'R2K @ 2K'.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, is currently net higher for a fourth consecutive month, the best run since Nov'2014. January saw a new historic high of 9502, and that looks set to be broken above (if marginally) by early March. A 5% retrace should see price action no lower than 8700/500. Things only turn provisionally bearish with a break under the Nov'2016 low of 7958.
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Summary

All US equity indexes continue to push upward, lead higher by the Nasdaq, with the Dow and SP' following.

Broadly, the US market looks due a further 5/10% higher by May/June to the sp'2400s, even assuming a 5% retrace sometime within March/April.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a monthly close under the key 10MA, which in March, will be in the low 2200s.
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Five wave theory still valid?

sp'monthly1c

Price structure for the sp'500 is still supportive of the notion that the market is currently in a final fifth wave. Last year I regularly noted that spring 2017 would be a basic 'time target', and we're almost there.

Keep in mind other world equity markets - especially the German DAX, which has the most well defined '5 waves' price structure that I'm aware of.

I remain of the view that for now, there is zero reason to be bearish. Higher rates will help the financials, and if 'Mr inflation' does start to appear, equities will continue to broadly climb. Further, if the bond market has seen a multi-decade top, then further capital flows into equities can be expected, prolonging the current rally that will soon be eight years old.
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Looking ahead

M -
T - PPI
W - CPI, retail sales, empire state, indust' prod', bus' invent', housing market index, EIA report
T - housing starts, weekly jobs, phil' fed
F - leading indicators, *OPEX*

*There are a fair few fed officials on the loose. Notably - Yellen, who will be addressing the US Senate and House respectively on Tuesday and Wednesday.

**As the US market is CLOSED the following Monday, Feb'20th, Friday will likely be rather subdued, with micro chop into the opex close.

--


I continue to post intraday. Subscribe!

Have a good weekend
--

Back on Monday... at 7pm.... probably.

The very bullish R2K

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +8pts at 2316. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.7%. VIX settled -0.3% @ 10.85. Near term outlook threatens a retrace to 2296/94, before resuming upward to the 2320/30s. The 2340/50s appear viable by first week of March.


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Summary

Suffice to add, it was another day, and week for the equity bulls, with a quartet of new historic highs in the sp', dow, nyse comp', and nasdaq comp'.

VIX remains naturally subdued, having melted lower into the weekend. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the latter half of March.
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The bullish R2K, weekly

Seen on the bigger weekly cycle, there is clear bull flag, and the R2K is provisionally confirming it. Further upside to 1425/50 seems a given within 2-3 weeks. That arguably equates to sp'2340/50 in the first week of March.

Goodnight from London
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The weekend post will appear Sat' @ 12pm, and will detail the US monthly indexes