Bearish start to the week

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -13pts @ 2280 (intra low 2268). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +12.3% @ 11.88. Near term outlook offers a bounce into month end to the sp'2286/94 gap zone. More broadly, the 2320/30s still look probable.


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Summary

It was a rather bearish start to the week, with all US equity indexes quickly unravelling in the opening 30 minutes of trading.

Whether you want to blame President Trump, or just a 'cyclically over-stretched market', doesn't much matter.

What does matter though is to keep things in perspective. One significant wave lower does not negate what we've seen since early November.. nor even what was built across last week. On balance, another push higher looks due.. at least to the 2320/30s.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 2.4% (Trans), 1.0% (sp'500), to 0.8% (NYSE comp'). Near term outlook offers another 1-2% of basic upside. The only issue is when the first correction - since the Nov'/election low of 2083, occurs. The broader outlook remains powerfully bullish, at least to the 2400/500s by late summer.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

A new historic high of 2300, with the sp' net higher by 23pts (1.0%), settling @ 2292. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still leaning on the downward side, whilst new highs are still being made.

Best guess: a short term top around 2320/30s by mid Feb', and then a retrace of 4-5% into early March. Certainly though, no price action under 2200. The 2400s seem a given by May/June. 

Keep in mind my year end target of 2683, which I recognise could be seen as 'crazy talk', but if we reach the 2500s by late summer, my target will be on track.
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Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq continues to lead the broader market higher, and saw a net weekly gain of 1.9%, settling at 5660. Just reflect on this... the Nasdaq has climbed 34% since the Feb'2016 low of 4209. Assuming a minor retrace in Feb/March, at the current rate, we'll see the 6000s by May. Once we're at 6k, its a curious thought that the market could see a 16% washout, and still maintain core support of the 5K threshold.


Dow

The mighty Dow climbed 266pts (1.3%), breaking a new historic high of 20125, settling at 20093. Upper weekly bollinger will be offering the 20600s next week. A valid scenario is that 20k is going to hold as short/mid term support, and if the next retrace will be say... 5%... then we need to first climb to at least 21k, before the next retrace.


NYSE comp'

The master index gained 0.8%, with a new historic high of 11344, settling at 11283. The 12k threshold looks at least 3-4 months away. First support is the 11000/10900 zone, which looks secure into the late summer.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, climbed by a rather significant 1.4%, settling at 1370. Upper bollinger will be offering the 1440/50s next week... which is a clear 4% higher. The 1500s seem due into the summer. Again, its a curious thought that few (if any) in the mainstream are talking about 'R2K @ 2k', before the current multi-year wave concludes.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Trans, was the leader this week, breaking a new historic high of 9502, settling with a net gain of 2.4% at 9444. Near term outlook is bullish to the 9700/800s. The 10k threshold looks out of range in the current run from early November.
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Summary

All US equity indexes are broadly bullish, and holding near/at historic highs.

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way higher, with the Dow and sp' following. The R2K is a little laggy, but its price structure is a very clear bull flag.

Near term outlook is bullish, with another 1-2% of basic upside, before the next realistic opportunity of a 4-5% retrace.
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Looking ahead

There is an absolute truck load of corp' earnings and econ-data in the week ahead...

notable corp' earnings: Tue': APC, AAPL, XOM, MA. Thurs: AMZN, DB. Fri': HSY, PSX.

M - pers' income/outlays, pending home sales
T - employment costs, case-shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con'
W - vehicle sales, ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA report

**FOMC announcement @ 2pm.There will not be a press' conf.

No one expects a rate hike, least of all yours truly. I remain expecting three rate hikes this year... May, Sept', and Dec'.
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T - weekly jobs, product/costs
F - monthly jobs, PMI/ISM serv', factory orders

*as Tuesday is month end, expect price action to be pretty choppy across the afternoon, not least as the market might be a little twitchy ahead of AAPL earnings.
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As ever, if you like these posts, you can support me via a monthly subscription. For $20pcm, you'll have access to my continued intraday postings, which total a rather monstrous 220/240 each month.

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear Mon' @ 7pm EST.

A subdued end to the week

US equities ended the week on a slightly weak note, sp -2pts @ 2294. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -0.3%. VIX settled -0.5% @ 10.58. Near term outlook offers further upside to at least the sp'2320/30s by mid Feb'.


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Summary

Despite a great many corp' earnings, and a box of key econ-data, equity price action was subdued across the day. Short term price structure is offering a baby bull flag, with upside to 2305/10 next Mon/Tuesday.

Naturally, the VIX was itself subdued, with an intra low of 10.30, the lowest level since summer 2014.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will fully detail the US weekly indexes.

Transports confirms the Dow

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt @ 2296 (intra high 2300). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% @ 10.63. Near term outlook offers continued broad upside of another 1-2% by mid Feb'.


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Summary

Suffice to add, today saw another set of new historic highs, with Dow 20100s, and the sp'2300s.

VIX is naturally still very subdued, and if the market can climb into the weekly close... there is serious threat of the VIX being whacked into the 9s... last seen in Feb'2007.


Transports confirms the Dow

The 'old leader' - Transports, broke the Dec'2016 high of 9490, and thus confirming the recent new highs in the Dow/sp/nasdaq.

Trans, monthly'2

We've a seventh consecutive green 'elder impulse' candle, the most bullish situation since early 2013, back during the days of QE3. The tranny looks headed for 10k, whether that is by early spring.. or early summer, really makes little difference.

Goodnight from London

20,000 and beyond

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +18pts @ 2298. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. VIX settled -2.3% @ 10.81. Near term outlook offers further upside into the weekend, and probably into the second week of February... to the sp'2320/30s.


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Summary

Today was day'2 UP, of what most should now recognise is a new up wave. The 'consolidation in time' phase is complete, and we're already well into new historic territory.

Naturally, the VIX remains subdued. Its almost a little surprising that Dow 20k wasn't enough to see the VIX cool (if briefly) to single digits. We've not seen VIX 9s since Feb'2007.
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Dow 20,000 is only 1pt above 19999, but it IS important.

I see some - such as Armstrong, regularly talk about Dow 23k. I can't disagree with that. Ironically, I'm more interested in some kind of hyper blow-off top to 25/26k.

Dow'monthly3 - fib' extrapolations

Yours truly - like many of you, is battling away in what remains a very twisted market. For now.. only a maniac would try shorting this.

Goodnight from London

The next big push

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +14pts @ 2280. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by a rather significant 1.6%. VIX settled -5.9% @ 11.07. Near term outlook is bullish to Dow 20K and the sp'2300s. Broadly, the market looks strong into mid February.


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Summary

Equity price action is highly suggestive that we're now in the early phase of another big push higher.

The technical setup for ALL the main equity indexes is offering straight up upside into early February. Its notable that the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle will soon be offering the sp'2320s.

Naturally, with equities broadly strong, the VIX remains very subdued. The 10s look due. A valid question is whether Dow 20k - and the sp'2300s, will be enough to see single digit VIX... last seen in Feb'2007... a long... long time ago.

Goodnight from a bullish London

Still stuck in the zone

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -6pts @ 2265 (intra low 2257). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +2.0% @ 11.77. Near term outlook offers yet another attempt to break new historic highs. Broadly, the market is vulnerable to the sp'2320s before end month.


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Summary

US equities began the week on a moderately weak note, but again... 'moderate' is all the equity bears can manage. After a hyper ramp from sp'2083 to 2277... the bears still can't manage any significant downside.

Broader price action is arguably just consolidation in time... rather than price. It kinda bemuses me I don't see more posting on it.

As for the VIX... it remains indicative of a very comfortable capital market, as even the low teens are usually out of reach. VIX call action is already suggestive that the big money is starting to forget about VIX 20s before mid Feb.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.2% (Transports), -0.3% (sp'500, Dow, Nasdaq comp', NYSE comp'), to -1.5% (R2K). Near term outlook offers renewed strength above the giant psy' level of Dow 20k, along with the sp'2300s.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

A net weekly decline of -3pts (0.15%), settling opex @ 2271... just 11pts shy of recent historic highs. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to slowly tick lower. At the current rate, there won't be a bearish cross for at least another 2-3 weeks.

Best guess: upside to the 2320/30s... before a basic correction of 5% to the low 2200s. Any price action in the 2100s looks out of range. More broadly... the 2400s look viable by May/June.
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Nasdaq comp'

A minor net weekly decline of -0.3%, settling @ 5555. Upper bollinger will likely be in the 5700s in February. The 6000s look out of range until at least April/May.


Dow

A net weekly decline of -0.3%, settling at 19827. A renewed push higher looks due, and its notable the mighty Dow is only -0.9% below the giant psy' level of 20k. Upper bollinger is offering the 20500s into early Feb', which would equate to the sp'2320/30s.


NYSE comp'

The master index settled -0.3% @ 11192. New historic highs >11264 look due into February. The 12000s look a valid target for late spring.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, was the laggard this week, settling lower by a rather significant -20pts (1.5%) at 1351. The 1425/50 zone appears a viable target in about 3 weeks. Underlying MACD is vulnerable to a bearish cross within 1-2 weeks, but instead... a divergent lower high (relative to mid Dec') looks due to occur by mid February.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Trans, was the one positive index/sector this week, managing a minor gain of 0.2%, settling at 9224.
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Summary

Most US indexes have been in moderate chop mode for around six weeks.

Price structure in most indexes is arguably a bull flag/pennant.

Further upside of 2-3% looks probable by mid February. From there... a distinct threat of a 5% correction, back to the low 2200s. That would make sense as broadly, the market hasn't seen any significant retrace since the hyper ramp from the early Nov' low of sp'2083.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless we're trading back under the monthly 10MA, and in February, that will be around sp'2200.
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Looking ahead

The first big trading week of the Trump presidency :)

notable corp' earnings: Tue: BABA, MMM, Wed: BA, QCOM, Thurs: CAT, F, GOOG

M - -
T - PMI manu', existing home sales, Richmond Fed'
W - FHFA house price index, EIA oil report
T - weekly jobs, intl' trade, PMI serv', new home sales, leading indicators
F - durable goods orders, GDP (Q4, first est'), consumer sent'

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If you value my posts... then subscribe to me.

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear Monday @ 7pm EST

The new era begins

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +7pts @ 2271. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -9.7% @ 11.54. Near term outlook offers broad upside across the next 2-3 weeks.. which should equate to Dow >20K and sp'2300s.


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Summary

... and the Trump era has begun.

Naturally, as it was opex - along with the inauguration, price action was just moderate chop.. but clearly leaning to the upside. New historic highs >2282 look probable next week... along with Dow 20k.

Its notable that even without Dow 20k, the VIX is back in the 11s again. 10s look due next week. A curious thought it whether we might finally single digit VIX.... last seen Feb'2007.

In any case... whatever you think of Trump.. a new era has begun.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Awaiting President Trump

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -8pts @ 2263. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +2.4% @ 12.78. Near term outlook offers further chop into the weekend. More broadly, Dow 20k and the sp'2300s remain due before end month.


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Summary

It was yet another day of chop for US equities. Indeed, we're now in week 6 since the market hit sp'2277 on Dec'13th.

Market volatility is itself naturally very subdued, with today seeing just a brief foray into the low 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid/late February. It has to be asked, would a 4-5% equity correction even be enough to see VIX spike to 20?
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As for Trump...

Screenie.. via Youtube - RSBN

I recognise that whilst half of the US populace are excited for the inauguration, around half of America are dreading tomorrow. To me, there is a gross ignorance in the liberal/democrat community of what Trump is actually about.

Frankly, I am not remotely inclined to try to summarise anything about what is likely ahead, as Trump has already laid it out many times.. across a few hundred rallies/events.

Yours truly - who saw the Trump victory coming... a long... long time ago, is most certainly looking forward to tomorrow. Things are about to get real interesting :)
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Goodnight from an icy... but sunny London

Tedious chop

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2271. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.4%. VIX settled +5.1% @ 12.48. Near term outlook is for further moderate swings into the weekend. Broadly, Dow 20k and sp'2300s remain on the menu.


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Summary

*DELAYED post.. as my internet dropped for 11hours. Even in the city of London.... it happens!
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It was an outright tedious day in US equity land. Sure, there were a fair few individual movers - not least due to earnings. The broader market though, its just in moderate chop mode.

With the inauguration this Friday afternoon, there is little reason to expect the market to swing significantly from current levels. As noted yesterday... the market is arguably just consolidating in time... rather than price. On balance, I'm still looking for another wave higher.. before opportunity of a correction in Feb/March.

As for VIX... nothing to be noted.. other than the low teens still remain out of reach.
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Here in the metropolis...

... and its notable, even in my more suburban part of the city... cranes are strewn across the horizon. I've not looked at any of the UK building stocks (ironically.. I only follow US companies these days), but they must all be at record highs. So much for the post BREXIT recession... another failed BoE prediction. Yes.. the UK has not left the EU... but the BoE - along with most others, expected the UK to be in recession shortly after any 'leave' vote.

Goodnight from London

Moderate weakness

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -6pts @ 2267 (intra low 2262). The two leaders - trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -1.4% respectively. VIX settled +5.7% @ 11.87. Near term outlook still offers Dow 20k, as broader price action remains strong, as reflected in a subdued VIX.


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Summary

US equities began the short week on a broadly weak note, especially for the two leaders - Trans/R2K. Broadly though, the market has been stuck since mid December. Arguably, ongoing price action is just consolidation in time... rather than price. Further, has everyone already forgot that the Nasdaq comp' traded at a new historic high just last Friday?

VIX opened to 12.75 in the opening 30mins, but even the low teens are still out of range. The US capital markets are super comfortable... as the US is set to see Trump take control.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US monthly indexes

The upward trend in US equities continues, as the market is still regularly breaking new historic highs. Leading the way is the Nasdaq comp', now in the 5500s... with the 6000s due. The Dow is set for 20k, along with the sp'2300s. The broader outlook remains bullish, with a basic target of sp'2400/500s by end 2017.


Lets take a look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

It is notable that the sp' has already managed a new historic high of 2282 this month. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) continues to tick higher. The key 10MA is currently @ 2161, and will be in the 2200s this spring. The election/Nov'2016 low of 2083 looks unlikely to be tested this year.

The hyper bulls - those who believe no recessionary/geo-political problems for at least another three years, should be seeking the MACD to break the momentum high seen in Nov'2014. That won't be easy though, and I'll be looking for a divergent lower high in momentum, whether late this year, or more likely.. early 2018.

I recognise that some are seeking a major correction of 20/30% - to the sp'1800/1500s, later this year. That looks extremely difficult though, as the Trump economic train is arguably only just leaving platform 8. Further, commodities look set for broad gains, with the CRB on track for 280/300 - from the current 190s. If correct, its impossible to see the sp' not pushing to at least the 2400/500s. My own 'best guess' for the year end close is 2683, but that does assume no corrections/retraces greater than 10%.
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Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' is leading the US equity market higher, regularly breaking new historic highs. Core support remains at the giant 5K threshold, with the 10MA now in the 5100s. The 6000s look a realistic target for late spring/early summer. When will the mainstream start to talk about Nas' 10k ?


Dow

The mighty Dow recently came within 0.37pts of the giant psy' level of 20k. That level does look set to be broken within the near term. Most recognise, any daily close >20k, offers another basic 400-600pts of upside, before the next realistic opportunity of a minor correction of 3-5%. Core support remains at 18k, with soft support at 19k. Its an interesting thought that just 15% of upside in 2017 will take the Dow to around 23k.


NYSE comp'

*the spike for the Dec' candle in the 11600s is a 'rogue/false print'.

The master index continues to grind upward with a new high of 11264. Next big target is the 12k threshold, which seems a valid target by May. A year end close in the 13000s seems possible.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, continues to power upward, currently a little below the Dec' high of 1392. Upper bollinger will soon be in the 1400s. The 1500s appear due by mid year. Things only turn provisionally bearish if the R2K is trading <1300 in June or beyond.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports has cooled a little from the Dec' high of 9490, but is still broadly climbing... currently scraping along the upper bollinger. The giant psy' level of 10k looks due this spring. If WTIC oil can break and hold >$60 by the summer, it will be a downward pressure on the transports.. even if the main market remains super strong.
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Summary

All US equity indexes continue to climb from their Jan/Feb' 2016 mid term lows.

The Nasdaq comp' is leading the way higher, with even the Transports now broadly strong.

Equity bulls have around 10% of downside buffer before core support is tested.

The equity bears have nothing to tout, unless a monthly close under the 10MA, which this spring will be in the sp'2200s.
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Looking ahead 

A short week, there are a few things to keep traders awake...

*notable corp' earnings: MS (Tues'), C, KMI, NFLX (Wed'), AXP, IBM (Thurs'), GE, SLB (Fri')

M - CLOSED
T - Empire state manu'
W - CPI, indust' prod', housing market index, Fed Beige book
T - weekly jobs, housing starts, phil' fed, EIA Nat' gas and Oil reports
F - *OPEX*

Friday will see the inauguration of Trump, as 45th President of the United States.

Clearly, the market will be effectively flat-lining as everyone merely sits back and watches the event. Further, the fact it will be opex, will mean the typical choppy price action will be especially muted.

**there are a number of fed officials on the loose. Notably Yellen, who will be stalking the west coast across Wed/Thursday. 
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Enjoy the three day weekend

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The next post will likely appear Tuesday @ 7pm EST

A mixed week

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2274. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. VIX settled -2.7% @ 11.23. Near term outlook offers upside of another 2-3%, before next realistic opportunity of sig' cooling to the mid/low 2200s.


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Summary

US equities ended the week on a naturally rather subdued note. It was however very notable that the Nasdaq comp' broke yet another new historic high.

With no real equity downside power, the VIX remained subdued, briefly trading in the 10s, but settling in the low 11s. There were further large blocks of VIX Feb' calls bought, as some are understandably of the view that the equity market is due for a sig' retrace, something on the order of 3-5%... no later than mid Feb.
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A long weekend is ahead...

Ice Cold in Alex, 1958

...'Worth waiting for'.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will be on the US monthly indexes