Sunday, 12 July 2020

Sunset into the twilight zone

A little glimpse of the world of yours truly...

A little evening peace

9.00pm BST... in the London metropolis

Sunset on another day... and year, for yours truly.

Remaining... a rare sight

Still (not) open 24hrs

Its been four months - the distant days of March 12th, since I ventured into a shop. Its certainly not because I'm concerned about the Chinese virus (why would I be?), I've simply no tolerance for being around any of the hysterical unwashed (literally... in many cases) sheep, or to play along with any kind of 'medical theatrics'. 

UK retail will never be the same, and neither will US/global, as the shift to online ordering has been accelerated.
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Sunset into the twilight zone

... another sunset... into the twilight zone. If I make it through another year... I'll be somewhat surprised.
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*Monday will likely be an 'open day' at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com, first post will appear by 8.30am EST.

**The next post on this page might appear Tuesday.

Saturday, 11 July 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +4.0% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.8% (SPX), +1.0% (Dow), +0.8% (Transports), to +0.7% (NYSE comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500



Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans





Summary

All five of the US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

More broadly, the Dow, NYSE comp', and Transports remain under their respective monthly 10MA, with the SPX and Nasdaq comp' comfortably above.



Looking ahead

It will be a busier week, with Q2 earnings set to officially begin on Tuesday with the financials. No doubt there will be another truck load of Corona related news headlines.

Earnings:

M - PEP
T - JPM, WFC, C, DAL, FAST
W - UNH, GS, USB, BK, INFY, AA, SNBR
T - DPZ, BAC, JNJ, ABT, TSM, MS, SCHW, NFLX, JBHT
F - BLK, ALLY
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Econ-data:

M - US T-budget
T - CPI
W - Empire state manu', import/export prices, indust' prod', EIA Pet', Fed Beige book
T - Weekly jobs, retail sales, Phil' fed, busin' invent'
F - Housing starts, consumer sent'. *OPEX*
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                Sunset, 9.00pm BST, July 11th

Final note

Price action since early June has been broadly choppy. There is the Nasdaq of course, hyper strong, with zero sign of a s/t ceiling/turn. To be clear, whilst I still expect a multi-week equity correction, anything sustained under sp'3K looks unlikely.

Q2 earnings sure won't be pretty, in fact, they will be 'end of the world apocalyptic'. Whilst you can argue the market is well aware of this, the key issue will be the corporate outlook for the rest of the year, and into 2021. I'd imagine many earnings statements will admit to simply not knowing, with no forward guidance.

Clearly, an economic recovery is underway, but anyone expecting a V-shaped recovery is just plain wrong. Even some of the mainstream cheerleaders - such as Pisani of CNBC, are now wondering about a W. The economic path into 2021 will not be a straight line, and its going to be a struggle for many.

There is the issue of Corona. Anyone touting a vaccine is still to be seen as either deluded or just willfully ignorant. Various treatments already exist, but a vaccine is unlikely.. ever.

Rather than Corona, I would actually see the uncertainty of the election, as a bigger problem for equities. We can expect some surprises this summer and into the fall, and its entirely possible (if not probable) that Trump won't be facing Biden anyway.

These remain ever more twisted and bizarre times... in the twilight zone.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Tuesday, July 14th.

Friday, 10 July 2020

Leaning upward into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +32pts (1.0%) at 3185. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +1.4%. The Transports settled +1.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, the SPX seeing an early low of 3136, but then leaning upward all the way into the very late afternoon to 3186, and settling significantly higher at 3185.

Volatility saw an early high of 30.91, but then melted lower, settling -6.7% at 27.29.
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The first sun since Monday
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 9 July 2020

Thursday troubles

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, sp -17pts (0.6%) at 3152. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -1.4%. The Transports settled -1.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, and from an initial high of sp'3179, price spiraled to 3115 in late morning.

Meanwhile...

The Santelli

The weekly jobless claims came in at 1.314M vs 1.413 prior, with continuing claims at 18.06M. Whilst it was another improvement, the rate of change isn't great, and even the mainstream cheerleaders are starting to get concerned at the stalling recovery. 

The afternoon saw a recovery from 3115 to 3164, with some closing hour chop, leaning on the weaker side.

Volatility picked up, the VIX swinging from an early low of 26.11 to 31.48, and settling +4.2% to 29.26. The bigger daily equity and VIX cycles are swinging away from the equity bulls/volatility bears, and offer some 'drama' for at least a few weeks... and who doesn't like some market drama?
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 8 July 2020

Broadly choppy

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +24pts (0.8%) at 3169. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +0.5%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the spx maxed out at 3171, with a cooling wave to 3136.

The US President appeared at 9.50am EST...


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Meanwhile...


Global Corona cases, as of midday Wednesday July 8th 2020, totaled 11,884,799, with deaths of 545398. The death rate (as % of global popn - 7.8bn) is currently 0.00007%. It remains the case that very few are aware of the latter number. Certainly, various governments have no interest in highlighting it, for fear the populace will have increased justification to revolt against ongoing restrictions.
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The afternoon saw further chop, with a mini ramp into the close, settling just 2pts shy of the morning high. Broadly though, price action remains choppy within 2965/3233 since early June.

Volatility remained relatively subdued, the VIX settling -4.6% to 28.08.

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Goodnight from London
--
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Tuesday, 7 July 2020

Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -34pts (1.1%) at 3145. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -1.5%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but sp'3159 was all the bears could manage, with most indexes turning positive by late morning.

The afternoon saw a secondary cooling wave from 3184 to 3142, and settling at 3145.

Volatility climbed for a second day, the VIX settling +5.3% to 29.43.

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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 6 July 2020

Positive start

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +49pts (1.6%) at 3179. Nasdaq comp' +2.2%. Dow +1.8%. The Transports settled +1.6%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, helped by both European, and especially Asian markets. The cooler dollar certainly also gave most asset classes an extra kick higher.

The President (not surprisingly) chimed in...


Indeed, a new historic high for the Nasdaq comp', helped by the US/global equity leader of Microsoft (MSFT).

The late morning and afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning upward into the close.

Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling +0.9% at 27.94.
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Goodnight from London
--
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Sunday, 5 July 2020

Sunday meanderings

A little glimpse of the world of yours truly...

9.00pm BST

Sunset.. a little bit earlier than before.

Looking towards the capital... of mass bankruptcies

Bullish... the twilight zone

The waning moon
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 3 July 2020

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +8.8% (Brazil), +8.6% (South Africa), +7.7% (India), +6.4% (Hong Kong), +6.2% (Germany), +4.6% (China), +2.2% (Australia), +1.9% (Japan), +1.7% (USA), to -0.6% (Russia).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a third consecutive month, settling +492pts (1.7%) to 25812. However, the June close was still below the monthly 10MA, with a distinctly spiky June candle from an intra high of 27580. Momentum remains deeply negative, and will remain so until at least early 2021.


Germany – DAX


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw its market climb for a third month, settling +717pts (6.2%) to 12301. The first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


Japan – Nikkei


A third month higher, settling +410pts (1.9%) to 22288, the first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


Brazil – Bovespa


The Brazilian market lead global equities upward, a third consecutive monthly gain, settling +7653 (8.8%) to 95055. Settling under the 10MA for a fifth month.


Russia - RTSI


Russian equities continued to struggle, settling -7pts (0.1%) to 1212. The intra month high of 1306 was notably just shy of the 10MA. I would note the key 1200 price threshold.


India – SENSEX


Indian equities climbed for the second month of three, settling +2491pts (7.7%) to 34915, but still under the 10MA.


China – Shanghai comp'


The Chinese market settled +132pts (4.6%) to 2984, the first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


South Africa – Dow


The second monthly gain of three, settling +129pts (8.6%) to 1632, but still under the 10MA.


Hong Kong – Hang Seng


The second monthly gain of three, settling +1465pts (6.4%) to 24427. The June high of 25303 was notably just shy of the 10MA.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities recovered for a third consecutive month, settling +129pts (2.2%) to 6001, although that was still below the key 10MA.



Summary

Nine world equity markets settled net higher for June, with one net lower.

Brazil and South Africa lead the way higher, with the USA and Russia trailing.

Three markets - Germany, Japan, and China, settled above their respective monthly 10MA.
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Looking ahead

A relatively light week, ahead of Q2 earnings which will begin with the financials on July 14th.

Earnings:

M -
T - LEVI, PAYX
W - BBBY
T - DAL, WBA
F - INFY
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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM serv'
T - JOLTS
W - EIA Pet', consumer credit
T - Weekly jobs, wholesale invent', Fed bal' sheet
F - PPI
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Final note

It was a bullish month for almost all world markets, but most remain mid/long term broken from their Jan/Feb' highs.

The US market itself is very mixed. The Nasdaq comp' and SPX saw bullish monthly settlements above their 10MA, but the Dow, Transports, and NYSE comp' all settled below key supports. Further, even the SPX June candle was distinctly spiky from 3233, and indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion.

A foray to the mid/low sp'2800s still appears a threat, but even if that is seen, I'd have to expect July (and subsequent months) to settle >3K. To be clear, with the Nasdaq comp' breaking a new historic high, just this past Thursday, the bears have nothing to tout unless a monthly settlement back under sp'3K.

The uncertainty of an election can be expected to be an increasing pressure on the US market. Yet, its pretty clear another stimulus bill is on the table, with the fed ready to buy another few trillion of bonds. Ohh, and lets not forget their corp' bond buying program, with the fed now (financially) in bed with almost everyone, from Comcast, Microsoft, to even the gold miner of Newmont!

Whilst you could argue we have 'sleepy summer doldrums' ahead, I'd expect things to remain pretty wild. Just imagine how twisted and bizarre life will have become by this November/December... in the twilight zone.

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Enjoy the holiday weekend!
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.