Monday, 9 December 2019

Call it fate

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 3135. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.3%. Near term outlook offers considerable chop into the Wed' FOMC.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode. With s/t momentum weakening, the market turned a little weak into the late afternoon. Volatility picked up, with the the VIX settling +16.4% at 15.86.

Today's single economic/financial tweet...


Indeed, the 'everything bubble' continues. However, it should be clear, Presidential complaints about overly high WTIC/fuel prices usually begin not much higher than $60.

Former fed chair Paul Volcker has died, aged 92.


The above picture really sums up what was a vastly different era. Meanwhile, Greenspan (93) is still ticking over.


Call it fate

2016 saw the abomination that was 'Ghostbusters'. Yours truly never did see that piece of garbage. Sony (SNY) are trying yet another reboot...



Whilst Sony are notorious for churning out tier'1 garbage, with three wondrous piano notes at t+1.01, and some words from Venkman, I have some hope for something spooky and magical.

Sideline (NSFW) video from Mr Plinkett...


Yours... very bullish RLM.
(ps... I'm looking forward to the RLM review of 'Rise of Skywalker', infinitely more than the actual movie).
 --

A winter's sunset in the capital of geo-political chaos

Full moon is Thurs' Dec'12th
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 7 December 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a rather mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.3% (NYSE comp'), +0.2% (SPX), -0.1% (Nasdaq comp', Dow), to -1.4% (Transports).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts).

sp'500


Swinging from a Tuesday low of 3070, but battling back upward to 3150 on Friday, and settling net higher by 4pts (0.2%) at 3145. More broadly, monthly price momentum continues to strengthen. Note the key 10MA at 2968. We're surely going to settle the month/year/decade above that first key aspect of support.


Nasdaq comp'


Tech saw a net weekly decline of -0.1%. Monthly momentum continues to strengthen, as new historic highs are viable within the immediate term.


Dow


The mighty Dow settled fractionally lower for the week by -0.1% at 28015. Monthly momentum is fractionally higher.


NYSE comp'


The master index was the leader this week, gaining 0.3% to 13588. This week saw a high of 13612, just 25pts shy of the Jan'2018 historic high.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the laggard this week, settling -1.4% at 10708. Its arguable that rising WTIC/fuel prices are holding the sector/index back.



Summary

Two US equity indexes were net higher for the week, with three net lower.

The NYSE comp' was strongest, with the Transports significantly lagging.

More broadly, all five indexes are trading above their respective monthly 10MA.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead for the year, currently +30.5%. The SPX is +25.5%, with the Dow +20.1%. The NYSE comp' is +19.5%, and the Transports is +16.8%



Looking ahead

Econ-data:

M:
T: Productivity/costs
W: CPI, EIA Pet'
T: PPI, weekly jobs
F: Retail sales, import/export prices, Busi' invents
--

Earnings: CHWY, SFIX, TOL, MTN (Mon'), GME (Tues'), AEO, LULU (Wed'), COST, AVGO, ADBE, ORCL (Thurs').
--

Key events:

Wednesday: FOMC (2pm), no policy change can be expected. Powell will host the last press conf' of the year/decade.

Thursday: UK general election.

Sunday: The US is set to raise tariffs on Chinese imports.
--


Final note

There are just 15.5 trading days left of the year/decade. Clearly, the US market is going to settle the year net higher by some very significant amount. The week ahead should offer some dynamic price action, not least as the trade/tariff uncertainty remains.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 6 December 2019

Ending the week strong

US equity indexes ended the week on a strong note, sp +28pts (0.9%) at 3145. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +1.2%.  The Transports settled +1.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The day began just before the 8.30am jobs report, with a literal market update from the US President, to which the Schiff replied...



With the jobs report better than expected, equities built pre-market gains, and opened broadly higher.

Trump added...


The afternoon saw a high of 3150, a mere 4pts shy of recent historic highs.

Trump posted yet again just before the close...


... this is also the same guy, who says he doesn't watch the stockmarket.
Link to tweet/video: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1203046374222237697

In any case, the jobs data was fine (even accounting for the returning GM workers), as the US economy is a remaining beacon of light amongst the developed nations.

Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -6.2% at 13.62.


Today's political mail...


 ... yet again, from the Liberal Democrats, who are campaigning very hard in a seat which they might win from Johnson/Conservatives. I would agree with their sub title of 'Boris Johnson is not fit... ', but then, none of the other candidates are people I'd trust to even correctly put out the garbage.
--

Winter in the capital of geo-political chaos

Next full moon Dec'12th - UK election day
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 5 December 2019

More optimistic, less optimistic

US equity indexes closed fractionally higher, sp +4pts (0.15%) at 3117 . Nasdaq comp' +0.05%. Dow +0.1% The Transports settled +0.01%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the market swinging lower to 3103 by mid morning. The afternoon saw further chop, with a brief swing lower around 3pm, on yet another trade headline, this time of 'less optimistic'. 

Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -1.9% at 14.52. The SPX daily candle was black, and leans s/t bearish, with a mirroring hollow red reversal candle in the VIX. Friday offers some dynamic price action, not least if the market interprets bad news (jobs data) as bad news.
--

Winter solstice is Dec'22nd

Twilight moon
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 4 December 2019

Midweek bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +19pts (0.6%) at 3112. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled +0.7%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, on an especially spurious Bloomberg report on 'trade deal optimism'. After the initial gains, the market slipped into minor chop mode, which continued into late afternoon.

Volatility was naturally ground lower, with the VIX settling -7.3% at 14.80.


Meanwhile, the Gundlach is doing the media rounds into year end...



Whether you like the guy or not, I'd argue it merits watching, if only to dismiss it.

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Today's political mail...



... two pieces today, both from the Liberal democrats, who are directly calling for tactical voting. Note they are part of the 'people's vote' and various 'remain' campaign groups.

If Johnson/Conservatives fail to achieve a clear majority, a Labour/Lib' dem' coalition would tag a popular vote onto a BREXIT bill, and its clear what the outcome of that would be.
*the UK election will be Dec'12th.
--

Flying into the sunset

Twilight in the capital of geo-politcal chaos

Full moon will be election day - Dec'12th
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 3 December 2019

Trump trade drama

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 3093. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -2.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened significantly higher, spooked by early morning comments from the US President, who amongst many comments said it would be "Probably better to wait until after the election for the China deal". The SPX duly spiraled to 3070, with VIX printing 17.99.

Trump continued...


... in a rather testy presser with Macron of France.

The afternoon saw a moderate recovery, with the VIX settling +7.0% at 15.96.
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*I will add something that appeared yesterday in AH...


... with none other than a reply from the Schiff. It should be clear, Trump increasingly wants a weaker USD. Ironically, many across the world would also like that, not least those governments who have a mountain of dollar denominated debt.
--

Winter sun for the bears

Cruising high about the capital of Trump

A glimpse through the clouds

Next full moon is Dec'12th
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Monday, 2 December 2019

Pushing out the reacceleration

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -27pts (0.9%) at 3113. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The last month of the decade began with a couple of market related messages from the US President...


It is certainly the case that Trump would like a weaker USD. However, the Fed have nothing to do with that (directly), and its actually the job of the US Treasury.

He continued...


Make of the above... what you will.
--

Equities opened a little higher, but the gains were shaky. With the ISM manu' printing a recessionary 48.1 vs 48.3 prior, that didn't help, and equities spiraled lower to 3110. The afternoon saw a bounce, but that was relatively weak, with the closing hour seeing renewed downside.

Volatility spiked, with the VIX printing 15.27, and settling +18.1% at 14.91.

In AH... Trump resumed...


Again, Trump sure doesn't like the broadly strong USD, and took a rather fierce swipe at the Fed and Powell. Who was it that appointed Jay 'ridiculous policies' Powell?
--


Pushing out the reacceleration

In March of this year, the mainstream cheerleaders were relentlessly touting a 'second half recovery'. That has now been pushed out to a 'reacceleration in Q2 of 2020'.



Farley "Is a recession possible next year?"
Orlando "Err... no!".

That is a pretty bold call. Regardless, the point stands, the mainstream never did get their H2 recovery, and instead are now hoping for something in Q2 of 2020.
--


Today's political mail...


... both pieces were from the Liberal Democrats. Once again, they are trying to make Johnson look bad, with an association to Trump. The mainstream are currently expecting a Johnson victory, but they are the same people who never saw the original BREXIT vote coming, or anything of significance in recent years.

Meanwhile... a rather disturbing story...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-ministers-talks-drugs-giant-20967881

It would seem Johnson/Conservatives have already been trying to arrange a provisional agreement between the Trump admin' and various US healthcare corporates. So... worse case, UK drug prices soar, perhaps ten fold. You can call it whatever you like, I call it morally contemptible.

*The UK election is Dec'12th, and yours truly has already voted.
--

Winter sunshine

Full moon is Dec'12th
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com