Tuesday 30 April 2019

The sun sets on April

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2945. Nasdaq comp' -0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a day of moderate swings in equity land, with the morning seeing a low of sp'2924, but then a rather typical latter day recovery to settle broadly flat. Volatility did pick up, with the VIX printing 14.05, but then melting back lower to settle +0.1% at 13.12.


SPX, monthly


The sp'500 climbed for a fourth consecutive month, +111pts (3.9%) to 2945, having broken a new historic high of 2948. On any basis, it was a very bullish month. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, as price momentum is about to turn net positive for the first time since Oct'2018. The outlook for May has to be bullish.
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AMD and AAPL bulls set to ascend in early May

The sun sets on April
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Goodnight from London
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Monday 29 April 2019

The market rests for no man

US equity indexes mostly closed a little higher, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2943. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and +0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a subdued, but bullish day for the US equity market, with the SPX and Nasdaq comp' breaking new (if marginal) historic highs. The underlying m/t upward trend continues, as the bears are effectively powerless.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX churning within the 13/12s. Whilst the VIX can't go much lower, it can stay low for weeks, even months at a time.
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The market rests for no man

I think a fair few million were only half awake for today (yours truly included), primarily due to last evening's episode of Game of Thrones. With just three episodes left, its been one hell of a show, and perhaps more than anything, I'm really curious as to what the final shot/scene of the series will be. I'd like it to be a series of jumps across the map.

A man would be proud of a girl
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Arya sure has progressed across the last eight seasons.

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As green as the US equity indexes


Summer is near
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday 27 April 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.7% (R2K), +1.2% (SPX), +0.5% (NYSE comp'), -0.1% (Dow), to -1.0% (Transports). Near term outlook offers further upside into end month/early May.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX broke a new multi-month high of 2939.88 in Friday's closing hour, which made for a net weekly gain of 34pts (1.2%) at 2939. New historic highs >2940 appear on the menu into end month. Giant psy'3K is technically within range in May. I would keep in mind the next key Fibonacci extrapolation of 3047. However, it will not be easy to climb above there, as the SPX was notably 4pts shy in 2015 of the key 1.618x fib' of 2138.
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Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high of 8151, settling +148pts (1.8%) to 8146. Upper weekly bollinger is offering the 8300s in early May. Talk of the 9000s by early autumn can begin.


Dow


The mighty Dow broke a new cycle high of 26695, but settled -16pts (0.1%) to 26543, weighed down by declines in INTC, MMM, and XOM. Note the upper weekly bollinger, currently offering technical upside to new historic highs in the 27500s.


NYSE comp'


The master index gained 68pts (0.5%) to 12991. The m/t equity bulls should be seeking a weekly close above the Sept'2018 high of 13261.


R2K


The R2K settled +26pts (1.7%) to 1591. The outlook into end month/early May has to be bullish. A weekly close above the Feb' high of 1602 appears on the menu by mid May. The Aug'2018 historic high of 1742 is still a considerable 151pts (9.5%) to the upside.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the laggard this week, settling -106pts (1.0%) to 10881. However, the tranny did break a new cycle high of 11148. The m/t bulls should still be seeking an eventual weekly settlement above the Dec'2018 high of 11044.



Summary

Four of the US indexes were net higher, with two net lower.

The Nasdaq and R2K are leading the way, whilst the Dow and Transports are lagging.

The Nasdaq broke a new historic high.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead, currently +22.8%, with the Transports +18.7%. The R2K is +18.0%, the SPX +17.3%, and the NYSE comp' +14.2%. The Dow remains the laggard, but still net higher by a respectable 13.8%.
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Looking ahead

Another very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings...

M - GOOGL, SPOT, WDC, NXP AKS, RIG
T - GE, PFE, MCD, MRK, BP, GM, SHOP, AMD, AAPL, TWLO, AMGN
W - CVS, SQ, QCOM, MRO, ZNGA, XPO, FIT
T - ABMD, TEVA, UAA, DOW, X, ATVI, GILD, SWKS
F - FCAU, CBOE
S - BRK/A

Earnings data overload!
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M - Pers' income/outlays
T - Employment costs, Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con', pending home sales
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA Pet' report

*FOMC announcement 2pm, which will detail no change in policy. There will likely be a reminder that the QT program is to begin winding down in May, and fully concluded by late Sept'. Powell will host a presser at 2.30pm, and that will drag on for around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, product'/costs, factory orders.
F - Monthly jobs, intl' trade, PMI/ISM serv' 

*as Tuesday is end month, expect more dynamic price action on higher volume.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday 26 April 2019

Ending positive

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +13pts (0.5%) at 2939. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook favours the bulls into end month.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but the bears could only manage sp'2917, before the market leaned back upward into the afternoon. The day ended on a positive note, with a new multi-month high of sp'2939.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with an early pop to 13.62, but then melted back lower to settle -3.9% at 12.73. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the equity bulls for the remaining two trading days of April.


Meanwhile...


Another day closer to the UBER IPO... due sometime in May. It was very apt to have a garbage truck pass in front of a Goldman Sachs building, filled with people being trained for the roadshow, to convince the mainstream that UBER stock is a good investment. Good luck with that.
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Sunshine before Atlantic storm Hannah
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Thursday 25 April 2019

Bullish Thursday

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1pt at 2926. Dow -0.5%. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Near term outlook favours the bulls into the weekend and end month.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and took a moderate swing lower. The SPX saw a floor of 2912, and that was all the bears could manage, with the market battling back upward into the afternoon.

It was a bullish Thursday as the Nasdaq comp' did break another new historic high. The other indexes can be expected to follow in the days and weeks ahead. Volatility saw a morning high of 14.30, before melting back, settling +0.8% at 13.25. The s/t cyclical outlook will favour the equity bulls into the weekend.
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Luscious spring green

Bullish spring sunshine
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Wednesday 24 April 2019

Nasdaq leading the way

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -6pts (0.2%) at 2927. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but it was still enough for the Nasdaq comp' to break a new historic high of 8139. The SPX broke a fractional new multi-month high of 2936.83, before taking a moderate swing lower into late afternoon.

Volatility picked up a little, with the VIX settling +7.0% at 13.14. The s/t cyclical setup for Thursday does favour the equity bears, but I'm not really expecting anything particularly significant.


Nasdaq, monthly, 12yr


With the Nasdaq breaking a new historic high, the other indexes can be expected to follow in the days and weeks ahead.
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Tuesday 23 April 2019

New cycle highs

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (0.9%) at 2933. Dow +0.5%. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and +1.6% respectively.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the market inspired by better than expected earnings from a broad array of companies.

The SPX broke a new multi-month intraday high of 2936, and settling with a new historic closing high of 2933. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling -1.1% at 12.28.

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Monday 22 April 2019

Easter Monday

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +2.9pts (0.1%) at 2908. Dow -0.2%. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and -0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Suffice to note, whilst many other markets were closed for Easter Monday, US equities saw a day of very subdued chop. Volatility did briefly pop into the 13s at the open, but then melted back lower, to settle in the mid 12s. Tuesday can only be more lively, not least as a truck load of earnings are set to pour in.
-

For most, it was another day off.
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Goodnight from London
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Friday 19 April 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.7% (Trans), +0.6% (Dow), +0.2% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.1% (SPX), -0.4% (NYSE comp'), to -1.2% (R2K).


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX saw a net weekly decline of -2pts (0.1%) to 2905. The bulls did break a new multi-month high of 2918, with a Thursday morning low of 2891. MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains at very elevated levels, with the market vulnerable to a sporadic and brief mini washout. New historic highs appear probable in May.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq comp' settled +13pts (0.2%) to 7998, having broken a new cycle high of 8052, a mere 135pts (1.7%) shy of the Aug'2018 historic high of 8133.


Dow


The mighty Dow settled +147pts (0.6%) to 26559, just 392pts shy of the Oct'2018 historic high of 26951.


NYSE comp'


The master index cooled by a moderate -46pts (0.4%) to 12922.


R2K


The R2K was the laggard this week, settling -19pts (1.2%) to 1565. The Russell is clearly struggling to break above the Feb' high of 1602.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, lead the way higher this week, settling +76pts (0.7%) to 10988. Its notable that this week did break above (if briefly) the Dec' high of 11044. Recent earnings from CSX and UAL were fine, and especially impressive considering WTIC/fuel prices in Q1.



Summary

Four indexes settled net higher for the week, with two net lower.

The Transports lead the way upward, whilst the R2K was the laggard.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead the way this year, currently +20.5%, with the Transports +19.8%. The R2K is 16.1%, the SPX +15.9%, and the Dow +13.9%. The NYSE comp' is lagging, but still higher by a respectable +13.6%.
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Looking ahead 

There is a veritable truck load of earnings...

M - HAL
T - TWTR, VZ, LMT, SNAP, KO, PG, UTX, EBAY, AMTD
W - BA, T, CAT, FB, MSFT, TSLA, V, PYPL, CMG, LRCX, XLNX
T - ABBV, UPS, LUV, MMM, F, AMZN, INTC, SBUX, GRUB
F - AAL, XOM, CVX, SNE


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M - Existing home sales
T - FHFA house price index, new home sales, Rich' fed
W - EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, durable goods orders
F - GDP Q1 (first print), consumer sent'.
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Enjoy the Easter break :)
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.