Wednesday 26 December 2018

Boxing day surge

US equity indexes closed very powerfully higher, sp +116pts (5.0%) at 2467. Nasdaq comp' +5.8%. Dow +5.0%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +5.4% and +5.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside of 2-3%, before resuming lower to the 2250/40s.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderate highly, built sig' gains, but then swung lower to fractionally negative, only to powerfully rebound into the afternoon. The daily close offers further upside, possibly as high as the old floor of 2532. Volatility did break a fractional new cycle high of 36.20, but reversed into melt mode, settling in the mid 30s.


Meanwhile... in Japan

Nikkei, daily



Nikkei, monthly


I didn't highlight the Japanese market in the most recent weekend post for no good reason. Christmas day saw a fierce decline of -5.0%, and whilst Boxing day saw a borderline significant rebound of +0.9% to 19327, the break of l/t trend is decisive. The Nikkei looks set for 12k in 2019/early 2020.

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Goodnight from London
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