Thursday 29 November 2018

Hard landing into end month?

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -6pts (0.2%) at 2737. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +1.6% at 18.79. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave into the weekend/monthly settlement.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened weak, with a late morning low of 2722, and then clawed back upward, even turning net positive in late afternoon. The closing hour saw a moderate cooling wave. Volatility saw a morning high of 20.48, but then melted back lower, settling in the upper 18s.


Hard landing into end month?

Tomorrow is the monthly settlement of course, and it has to be asked if we might end on a very bearish note. The G20 'leaders summit' will begin, and will threaten sporadic news headlines across the day.

Virgin Atlantic, descending into LHR
The equity bears should be content with any settlement under the monthly 10MA, currently at 2750.  Considering the s/t cyclical setup, that does still look probable, and will give extra credence to the original notion of the October bearish close. 
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