Monday 11 June 2018

Starting positive

US equities began the week on a slightly positive note, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2782. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% at 12.35. Near term outlook offers Tuesday weakness as low as sp'2760, with a more broader target of 2718.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the week on a positive note, and after some fractional chop, clawed upward into the early afternoon to sp'2790 - the highest level since March 13th. The closing hour saw some moderate cooling to settle at 2782. The s/t cyclical setup for Tuesday is bearish, although we could certainly open higher on a Trump/Kim deal.

Volatility was itself very subdued, with the VIX settling fractionally higher in the mid 12s. A burst to the 15/16s is a valid threat, not least as the fed are set to raise rates.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly


Chinese equities are still leaning on the weaker side, breaking a new low for the year of 3037. Clearly, if psy' 3K is lost, that'd lead to some mainstream concern, and spiral things somewhat lower.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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