Saturday, 10 March 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +4.2% (Nasdaq comp', R2K), +3.5% (sp'500), to +2.9% (NYSE comp'). Outlook is for broad upside across the spring/early summer, to the sp'2950/3047 zone, which is where things should get real interesting.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly charts).


A powerful net weekly gain of 95pts (3.5%) to settle the week at 2786. More broadly, the sp' is currently net higher for March by 72pts (2.7%). Note the key 10MA, currently at 2610, with the upper bollinger offering the 2850s.

Best guess: broad upside into spring/early summer, to big target of the 2950/3047 zone. From there, another sig' correction is rather probable. Again though, that would likely be brief, with an equally powerful rebound. The year end target of 3245 looks on track.

Nasdaq comp'

Tech' is leading the way upward, with a powerful net weekly gain of 4.2%. Friday saw a very important new historic high of 7580. For March, the Nasdaq comp' is currently +4.0%. The 8000s look on the menu this spring.


The mighty Dow saw a net weekly gain of 3.2%, settling at 25335. Note the key monthly 10MA, currently at 23647, which is shadowing rising trend from early 2016. The upper bollinger is offering the 26400s. Any price action >26800 would be very important for the mid/long term, and indirectly suggest the sp'500 will eventually break >3047.

NYSE comp'

The master index gained a very respectable 2.9% this week, settling at 12918. Big target is the Jan' high of 13637. The 14000s look within range by mid year.


The second market leader saw a powerful net weekly gain of 4.2% to 1597. For March to date, the R2K is net higher by 5.6%, and is already very close to breaking a new historic high. Upper bollinger is offering the 1630s in the near term. The 1700s look within range by mid year.


The 'old leader' - Transports, gained 3.9% this week, settling at 10739. The key monthly 10MA is holding as major support. A push to new historic highs looks viable in late April/early May.


A very bullish week for all the main indexes, lead higher by the Nasdaq comp' and R2K.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high, which bodes well for the rest of the market.

The Feb' low merely ranks as a sporadic washout, as most (if not all) indexes look set for new historic highs this spring. 

Equity bears can't get excited unless the Feb' lows are taken out. Far more probable would seem new highs, which would make the Feb' low as just a higher low.

Looking ahead 

M - US T-budget
W - PPI, Retail sales, busi' invent', EIA'
T - Weekly jobs, Phil'fed, empire state', import/export, housing market indx
F - Housing starts, indust' prod' consumer sent'. *QUAD-OPEX*

*As Friday is quad-opex, expect increased volume, with a great deal of choppy price action.

**With an FOMC meeting March 20/21st, the blackout period is in effect, with no scheduled fed officials.

***US clocks move ahead one hour, Sunday March 11th at 2am. The UK/EU don't change until March 25th. So for two weeks, yours truly has market hours: 1.30pm>8.00pm.

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.