Friday, 16 February 2018

Short term top

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt at 2732. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled +1.7% at 19.46. Near term outlook offers a basic retrace of 2.5% to around sp'2670. More broadly, big target remains the sp'2950/3047 zone.




US equities opened in minor chop mode, but then built moderate gains into late morning, breaking a new cycle high of 2754, some 222pts (8.8%) above last Friday's low. Pretty incredible. The 2754 high does appear to be a short term top, with the sp' seeing distinct cooling to fractionally negative in the afternoon.

Volatility opened fractionally higher, but cooled into the 12pm hour. With equities cooling in the afternoon, the VIX swung significantly upward.

Best guess: equity cooling to around sp'2670, which should see the VIX back in the 25/30 zone. More broadly, m/t bullish, with big target of sp'2950/3047 by late spring/early summer. Then things will get 'really interesting'.

Sunshine to conclude a powerfully bullish week

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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