Tuesday, 13 November 2018

Failed rally

US equity indexes closed on a somewhat mixed note, sp -4pts (0.1%) at 2722. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -2.1% at 20.02. Near term outlook offers a test of key gap support in the sp'2680s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the day on a moderately positive note, and clawed upward to 2754... but that was all the bulls could manage. Notably, 2754 was 7pts shy of the 200dma. Today's candle is spiky... and indicative of a failed rally. The afternoon saw the spx turn moderately lower... lead by the Dow.

Volatility saw minor swings, with a low of 19.11, and settling around the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook leans to the equity bulls. Thursday will be rather important.
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Monday, 12 November 2018

Bearish Monday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -54pts (2.0%) at 2726. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -2.0% respectively. VIX settled +17.8% at 20.45. Near term outlook offers further sig' downside to the sp'2680s, before next opportunity for a bounce.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The week began on a very bearish note, with the spx opening moderately weak, and unraveling into the afternoon. The closing hour broke a new intraday low of 2722, and offers further significant weakness ahead of opex.

Volatility naturally picked up, with the VIX settling back above the key 20 threshold. Next target is the minor gap in the 22/23s.
--

Bonus chart: Germany, monthly


A Monday decline of -1.8%, with November currently -1.1% at 11325. Deutsche Bank in the $9s is very reflective of underlying EU financial 'troubles'.
--


Final note...

I watched Ant Man and the Wasp last evening. A nice fun little movie. Stan Lee had a cameo of course... but today saw news of his death. From here onward, a great many of the super hero movies will be seen a little differently.



We can expect another cameo in the next Avengers movie, maybe even a few other things. In any case... a legendary creator of characters, whom many are thankful for.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


ps... Excelsior!

Saturday, 10 November 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +2.8% (Dow), 2.1% (sp'500), +1.7% (NYSE comp'), +1.4% (Trans), +0.7% (Nasdaq comp'), to +0.1% (R2K). Short term outlook offers weakness of 2-3%.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
 
sp'500


The sp' saw a net weekly gain of 2.1%, with an intra high of 2815, and settling at 2781. More broadly, the sp' is currently net higher for November by 2.5%. Note the monthly 10MA at 2755. That remains my personal 'line in the sand', which we settled under in October.

Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) on the monthly cycle continues to tick lower, and is outright negative. Its not impossible for monthly momentum to swing back upward into end year, but its not probable.

If the sp' settles November below the key 10MA, that would give extra credence to the notion of a bearish October settlement. Natural downside target would be the lower monthly bollinger - currently at 2334, and rising 30/40pts a month.
--


Nasdaq comp'


Tech saw a net weekly gain of a moderate 0.7% to 7406. There is s/t threat of cooling to the 7200/100s ahead of opex. More broadly, note the monthly 10MA at 7489, which we're currently still below. MACD cycle turned negative with the Nov'1st open, as price momentum favours the bears for the first time since Oct'2016. Unless November settles back above the key 10MA, natural target will be the lower bollinger, currently in the 5800s, and likely around 6k in December, which is a powerful 20% lower.


Dow


The mighty Dow was the strongest index this week, settling +2.8% at 25989. Note the key monthly 10MA of 25092, which we're almost 4% above. The Dow is comfortably m/t bullish, having settled October 7pts above the 10MA. It is notable though that price momentum is negative, and September made for a lower momentum cycle high.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a sig' net weekly gain of 1.7% to 12537. Note the key monthly 10MA at 12645. Price momentum remains moderately negative. It is extremely notable that the nyse comp' was the only index (of the six I regularly highlight) that has broken the February low.


R2K


The R2K was the laggard this week, gaining a fractional 0.1% to 1549. Note the key monthly 10MA at 1602, which is a clear 3% higher. Price momentum continues to increasingly favour the equity bears. Note the lower bollinger of 1333, rising around 15/20pts a month. Unless November settles above 1610 or so, valid target will be the upper/mid 1300s.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Trans, saw a net weekly gain of 1.4% to 10517. Note the key monthly 10MA at 10676. Price momentum is outright negative for a second month. It is the case that weak WTIC/fuel prices are helping to prop the tranny up, especially relative to other indexes/sectors.



Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes settled the week net higher. The Dow and sp'500 are leading the bounce upward, with the Nasdaq and R2K lagging.

More broadly, four indexes (Nasdaq comp', NYSE comp', R2K, and Trans) are currently trading under their respective monthly 10MA, whilst the sp'500 and Dow are trading above.

Equity bulls need a November settlement above the key 10MA - in the sp'2750s, to negate the bearish October settlement. As ever, I would keep in mind other indexes for the most balanced perspective.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq continues to lead, currently +7.3%, the Dow +5.1%, and the spx +4.0%. The R2K +0.9%, Trans -0.9%, with the NYSE comp' -2.1%.
--


Looking ahead 

Key earnings: HD, TLRY (Tues'), TCEHY, CSCO, CGC, APRN, M, (Wed'), WMT, NVDA, AMAT, and JWN (Thurs').


--
M -
T - US T-budget
W - CPI,  *Fed chair Powell speaking in AH with Kaplan on national/global econ' issues
T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, retail sales, empire state, import/export prices, bus' invent', and the EIA Pet' and Nat' gas reports.
F - Indust' prod'   *OPEX*
--

If you value my work on Blogger and Twitter, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Have a good weekend
--
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 9 November 2018

Falling into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -25pts (0.9%) at 2781. Nasdaq comp' -1.6% at 7406.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -1.8% respectively. VIX settled +3.8% at 17.36. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the 2700/2680 zone, before resuming upward into Thanksgiving week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, with the bears breaking s/t rising trend (from the sp'2603 low) by mid morning. From there, prices spiraled to 2764, before a latter day rally to 2790, and settling at 2781.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing a high of 18.41, and settling in the mid 17s. S/t outlook offers at least the sp'2730s, if not the 2700/2680 zone, the latter of which would equate to VIX 22/23s.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Thursday, 8 November 2018

Post FOMC cooling

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -7pts (0.2%) at 2806. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled +2.2% at 16.72. Near term outlook offers s/t cooling of 2.5-3.5% ahead of next opex. The grander issue remains how November will settle.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and saw minor chop into the FOMC announcement. The late afternoon saw a distinct cooling wave, as s/t price momentum now favours the bears.

Volatility saw a new cycle low of 16.09, but then swung upward, settling +2.2% at 16.72. S/t outlook offers equity cooling, with the VIX set to at least test the key 20 threshold.
--

Meanwhile... (full screen recommended!)



NASA continues to make reasonable progress with the Orion, as part of the SLS program. However, when you consider that SpaceX are re-using their launch vehicles, it makes the SLS program look grossly outdated. see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System

Reading around, I see many within the industry believe that we'll likely only see 3 or 4 SLS vehicles ever launched, not least once the SpaceX BFR is launching on a regular basis.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Tuesday, 6 November 2018

Melt up into the results

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +17pts (0.6%) at 2755. Nasdaq comp' +0.6% at 7375. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -0.2% at 19.91. Near term outlook offers a post election washout to the sp'2690/80s, before better opportunity of the 2770/2810 zone.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a day of moderate swings, seeing a low of 2737, but then battling upward into the close, settling at 2755. Volatility was itself subdued, settling just under the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook offers a spike in the VIX, with some equity cooling. More broadly though, the sp'2800s with VIX in the mid teens is due.
-

Bonus chart: Germany, monthly


We're only four trading days into the month, but its notable that the DAX is currently +0.3% at 11484. The index/market is m/t bearish, having lost the l/t trend from the 2009 collapse lows. Its very difficult to see the US market breaking new historic highs if German equities don't recover.
--


Open day!

Wednesday will be open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com  
 
For the non-subscribers out there, you will be able to follow my semi-coherent ramblings across the day. It should be interesting, as we'll have the market responding to the midterm election results.
First post: pre-market brief, no later than 8.30am eastern.
--

Summer is a faded memory
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Monday, 5 November 2018

Pre-election chop

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +15pts (0.5%) at 2738. Nasdaq comp' -0.4% at 7328.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled u/c. VIX settled +2.3% at 19.96. Near term outlook offers cooling to the sp'2690/80s, with VIX 22/23s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The week began on a choppy note, but this is rather natural ahead of the midterm election results. The sp' saw an early low of 2717, swinging upward to 2744, on spurious poll data that suggested the Republicans might hold the house and senate.

Volatility saw an early high of 20.87, but then melted lower to settle in the upper 19s. S/t equity price structure isn't so bullish, a cooling wave of 1.5-2.0% to the sp'2690/80s is a high threat within 1-2 days.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Friday, 2 November 2018

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a broadly bearish month for world equity markets, with net changes ranging from -9.2% (Japan), -7.7% (China), -7.4% (Greece), -7.3% (France), -6.5% (Germany, Australia), -5.5% (Russia), -5.3% (Spain), -5.1% (USA), to +10.2% (Brazil). The outlook is bearish into 2019.


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow settled -1342pts (5.1%) to 25115, having swung from a new historic high of 26951, and recovering from an intra low of 24122. Note the monthly settlement, just fractionally above the key 10MA of 25108. The Dow was the most resilient of the US indexes, avoiding a bearish monthly close.

Underlying macd (green bar histogram) ticked lower, settling negative for the first time since June 2016. The cyclical setup into year end/early 2019 is bearish.

Note the RSI, which saw a peak in January, and a lower cycle high in September. This is a monstrous divergence, as the Dow broke a new historic high in early October. Some were warning of this divergence - as early as late January. The fact that its happened, with October seeing a great many trend breaks and higher volatility does merit alarm bells.

First big support is the February low of 23360. After that, its empty air to the lower bollinger, around psy'20K. That would directly equate to the mid/low sp'2300s.
--


Germany – DAX


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw the DAX cool for a third consecutive month, settling -799pts (6.5%) to 11447. October was the third monthly close under the key 10MA. The Oct' settlement was full confirmation of the fractional and brief break of long term trend seen in September. First support at psy'10k, and then 8k - the double top of 2007/2000.

NIRP via the ECB continues to harm the EU financials. Deutsche Bank (DB), aka... the ticking time bomb of derivatives, does indeed remain a systemic risk to the wider EU. Mr Market hasn't ground the stock to a new historic low in the $9s, for no good reason.
--


Japan – Nikkei


The Nikkei swung from a multi-decade high of 24445 to 20971, settling -2222pts (9.2%) to 21920. The October candle has a clear spike floor from key price threshold. Underlying macd (green bar histogram) has turned negative for the first time since Dec'2016. If 21k is settled under, its open air to around 18k.


China – Shanghai comp'


The Chinese market settled lower for the 6th month of the year, -218pts (7.7%) to 2602. An intra low of 2449, was the lowest since Nov'2014. The m/t downward trend from January remains very consistent. Next support is not until psy'2K. I will merely ask once again, do you not consider that the communist leadership are more than happy to see the capitalists speculators lose money... even those within their own borders?


Brazil – Bovespa


The Brazilian market was the exception this October, breaking a new historic high of 88377, and settling +8081pts (10.2%) at 87423. The market is seeing a post election ramp. As of Nov'1st, price momentum has turned fractionally positive. I merely wonder how long it will take Bolsonaro to turn Brazil into Venezuela. Or is that being overly pessimistic?


Russia - RTSI


Russian equities swung from 1202, settling -65pts (5.5%) to 1126. The key price threshold of 1200 remains major resistance. Weaker oil/commodity prices are not helping. Things would turn very bearish with a monthly close under 1000.


France – CAC


The French market settled -400pts (7.3%) to 5093, with a low of 4896... tagging old broken l/t declining trend/resistance. It could be argued its just a back test, but the CAC has been stuck since late 2017. The bulls can't get confident unless >5500. A break <4750 will offer 4100/4000.


Spain – IBEX


The Spanish market fell for a third consecutive month, settling -495pts (5.3%) to 8893, with a spike from l/t rising trend of 8627. The Spanish economy remains one of the weakest in the EU, with a great many internal problems... not least the 'Catalonia situation'.


Australia – AORD


The Australian market declined for a second month, settling -412pts (6.5%) to 5913, the most bearish price action since Aug'2015. First big support in the 5400s, then 5000/4900s. Further weakness in commodities would be a particular downward pressure in this market.


Greece - Athex


The economic basketcase of the EU - Greece, saw the Athex decline for the sixth month of the year, settling -51pts (7.4%) to 640, the lowest level since Feb'2016. The country remains on life support via the infamous troika.
--


Summary

Nine markets settled significantly lower, whilst one settled sig' higher.

The US and Brazilian markets broke new historic highs.

As a collective, world equities are increasingly weak. The break of l/t trend in Germany is decisive, and it bodes bearish for the rest of the European markets into year end/early 2019. Whilst the US Dow did avoid a bearish monthly close (my criteria of the 10MA), the other US indexes are suggestive the Dow will break new multi-month lows within 1-3mths.
--


Looking ahead

Key earnings: WYNN, SQ, QCOM (Wed'), DIS, ATVI, DISCA (Thurs')



--
M - ISM/PMI serv'
T - *US Midterm elections*
W - EIA Pet' report, consumer credit
T - Weekly jobs.

*the FOMC will issue a press release at 2pm. No rate hike or change in the QT program can be expected. There will NOT be a press conf'.

F - PPI, consumer sent', wholesale trade
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

--


-
The next post on this page will likely appear by 6pm EDT on Monday, Nov'5th.