Friday 31 August 2018

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed,  sp' u/c at 2901. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -4.9% at 12.86. Near term outlook offers an up wave in early September to new historic highs.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The month ended with a great deal of minor chop, leaning on the slightly weaker side, on US/Canada trade concerns. Its notable that the R2K did break (if marginal) a new historic high today, making it a day for the equity bulls. Volatility saw a mini spike to 14.03, but then (naturally) melted lower into the weekend, settling in the upper 12s.
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Sunset on August
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EDT, and will detail a broad selection of world equity markets.
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Thursday 30 August 2018

Mixed Thursday

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -12pts (0.4%) at 2901. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers another wave higher into the long weekend.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It turned out to be something of a mixed day in equity land. The bulls did achieve a pair of new index historic highs - Nasdaq comp', and the R2K, but the late afternoon saw some distinct cooling on Trump China-tariff concerns.

Volatility saw a mini ramp in late afternoon, pushing into the mid teens. The drama!
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Wednesday 29 August 2018

Powering toward 3000

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +16pts (0.6%) at 2914. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -2.0% at 12.25. Near term outlook offers an August settlement around sp'2900.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs for the sp'500 and Nasdaq comp'. The R2K and Trans aren't far behind, with the Dow and nyse comp' set to break the Jan' highs in Sept'/Oct. Volatility remains naturally very subdued, with the VIX settling in the 12s.
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Another day closer to the horror of winter.
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Tuesday 28 August 2018

Just another day

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +0.8pts at 2897 (intra high 2903). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +2.8% at 12.50. Near term outlook offers chop all the way into the long holiday weekend.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was just another day in equity land, with a trio of new historic highs for the sp', nasdaq comp', and the transports. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX stuck within the 12/11s.
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Monday 27 August 2018

Battling towards big target

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +22pts (0.8%) at 2896. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.1% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% at 12.16. Near term outlook offers Tuesday chop/mild cooling, with August to settle around sp'2900.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the week on a positive note, with new historic highs in the sp'500, nasdaq comp', and the R2K. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the low 12s.
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Big target

At the start of the year I laid out a pretty clear outlook, specifically an end year target of 3245. However, it was always going to be the case that there would be strong aspects of resistance, arguably starting around 2950, to psy'3000 itself, and then giant fib' of 3047. To me, any price action >3047 will give renewed confidence the 3200s are viable into year end. Clearly... that does look a stretch, but the current trend is certainly to the upside.
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Saturday 25 August 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 1.93% (R2K), 1.66% (Nasdaq comp'), 0.86% (sp'500), 0.71% (nyse comp'), 0.51% (Trans), to 0.47% (Dow). Near term outlook offers upside of another 1% into the Labor day holiday.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' climbed for the 7th week of 8, settling +0.86% to 2874, having broken a new historic high of 2876. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) is on the somewhat high side, but there are another 2-3 weeks of 'comfortable' upside.

Best guess: big target of 2950/3047 zone should be seen by late September. The 3000s look viable in October. I would note that 3047 (the 2.618x fib' from March 2009) will be a very difficult threshold to break. If it is cleared though, the door will open to far higher levels. My original year end target is 3245, and I would accept that looks a stretch, even if we're in the 3000s by mid October.
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Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq comp' settled higher by a rather significant 1.66% to 7945, having broken a new historic high of 7949. The 8000s look due within 1-2 weeks. The only issue is whether things spiral upwards, with the 9000s by year end.


Dow


The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, settling +0.47% to 25790, the second highest ever weekly settlement. New historic highs (>26616) won't be easy, but they do look viable by late  September.


NYSE comp'


The master index settled +0.71% to 12999. There is indeed some resistance around the 13k threshold, and things will turn far more bullish with the 13100s.


R2K


The second market leader was the strongest index this week, gaining 1.93% to 1725, with a new historic high of 1726. S/t bullish, with soft target of the 1750/75 zone. The 1800s won't be easy.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Trans, climbed for the 7th week of 8, gaining 0.51% to 11284, with a new historic high of 11475. The 12000s look a stretch by year end, not least if WTIC breaks new multi-year highs.



Summary

All six of the main indexes were net higher for the week.

Four indexes broke new historic highs: Sp', Nasdaq comp', R2K, and Trans.

The R2K and Nasdaq are back to leading the way higher, with the Trans and Dow lagging.

YTD performance:


The Nasdaq is leading the way, currently +15.1%, with the sp' +7.5%. The nyse comp' is the laggard, currently +1.5%.
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Looking ahead 

Earnings of note:  BBY, TIF (Tue'), ANF, LULU (Thurs')




M -
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', richmond fed
W - GDP (second print), corp' profits, pending home sales, EIA Pet'
T - weekly jobs, pers' incom/outlays
F - Chicago PMI, consumer sent.

*the following Monday, Sept'3rd is Labor day, and the US market will be CLOSED. The Friday session can be expected to be very subdued, and that will favour the bulls for algo-bot upward melt into the end month settlement.
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday 24 August 2018

Ending the week strong

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +17pts (0.6%) at 2879. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -3.4% at 11.99. Near term outlook offers upside of another 1% into the Labor day holiday break.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and built gains into the afternoon. The R2K was the first to break a new historic high, followed by the Nasdaq comp', and then the sp'500. On any basis, it was a very strong end to the week.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting into the upper 11s.
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Thursday 23 August 2018

Chop ahead of Powell

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -4pts (0.2%) at 2856. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +1.3% at 12.41. Near term outlook offers Powell induced upside into the weekend.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened fractionally weak, saw a little swing from 2859 to '68, and then saw further chop, leaning on the weaker side into late afternoon.

Volatility remained subdued, swinging from a low of 11.65, and settling in the mid 12s. If Powell can help inspire equities higher on Friday, then VIX will settle the week in the 11/10s.
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Wednesday 22 August 2018

Midweek chop

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -1pt at 2861. Nasdaq comp' +0.4% at 7889. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.0% and +0.2% respectively. With the R2K breaking a new historic high today, near term outlook offers the sp'2880s before the weekend.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a touch weak on Trump-related political concerns. However, the opening level was around 12pts above the overnight futures low. From an early low of 2856, the market jumped to 2867, before a great deal of afternoon micro chop. Its notable the R2K did break (if only fractionally) a new historic high of 1723.01.

Volatility was notably subdued - especially relative to the overnight mainstream mild hysteria, with the VIX settling in the low 12s.
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Another day closer to autumn
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Tuesday 21 August 2018

Three new historic highs

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 2862. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and +1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers further historic highs, with the Nasdaq comp' next to follow the Trans, R2K, and sp'.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and battled upward. The Transports was the first to break a new historic high, with the R2K following, and then the sp'500. There a touch of afternoon cooling, but it does nothing to negate what was a very bullish day.

With equity strength, volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling +3.0% in the upper 12s.

I will perhaps do a special post this weekend, but original target (which is never changed mid year... unlike some), is arguably back on the menu...

sp'monthly6


I'd agree that 3245 is a long way up. I'm not the only one touting that 'crazy talk' though. In the mainstream we have Tony Dywer of Canaccord see: Bloomberg. Less mainstream, we have Oscar Carboni, who has a year end ES target of 3258. The latter has interestingly had almost the exact same target as yours truly for the past two years.
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Headed to the moon
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Monday 20 August 2018

New historic highs are close

US equity indexes closed on a broadly positive note, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 2857. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.2% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% at 12.49. Near term outlook offers new historic highs >sp'2872.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and whilst the gains were initially shaky, the market clawed upward into the late afternoon. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the mid 12s. S/t outlook offers new historic highs in equities. If so, then VIX will remain sub-teens.
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Saturday 18 August 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a somewhat mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.41% (Dow), +1.24% (Trans), +0.59% (sp'500), +0.50% (nyse comp'), +0.36% (r2k), to -0.29% (nasdaq comp'). Near term outlook offers new historic highs before end month.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp'500 swung from a low of 2802 to 2855, settling +0.59% at 2850. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle is on the moderately high side. In theory, there is a comfortable 1-3 weeks of further upside, which does offer new historic highs within the near term.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq was the laggard this week, settling -0.29% to 7816. Underlying macd continues to tick lower, with price momentum close to turning outright negative. New historic highs (>7933) are within range before end month.


Dow


The mighty Dow lead the way upward this week, settling +1.41% to 25669. New historic highs look out of range until at least after the Labor day holiday (Sept' 3rd).


NYSE comp'


The master index gained 0.5% to 12908. Note the spike floor from 12648, which is indicative of a s/t floor. New historic highs look out of range until at least late September.


R2K


The second market leader climbed for a third consecutive week, +0.36% at 1692. Note the macd, where s/t price momentum is stalling/leveling out, rather than turning outright negative. Upper bollinger is offering new historic highs in the 1740/50s in the immediate term.


Trans


The 'old leader' settled higher for the sixth week of seven, +1.24% to 11227. Price momentum is on the moderately high side, with new historic highs viable within the immediate term. Ongoing cooling in WTIC is certainly helping to lift the sector/index.



Summary

Five indexes settled net higher, with one net lower.

The Dow and Trans are leading the way upward, with the R2K and Nasdaq comp' trailing.

New historic highs in the sp', r2k, nasdaq comp', and transports, look viable, if not probable before end month. The issue is whether such new highs are quickly reversed. If they are, it would be a subtle warning of problems for Sept'>Nov'.

YTD performance:


The Nasdaq comp' remains the leader this year, currently +13.2%, with the sp' +6.6%. The nyse comp' is the laggard, currently +0.8%. 
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Looking ahead 

Notable earnings:  KSS, TOLL (Tues'), LOW, TGT, LB, ADI (Wed'), BABA, GAP (Thurs')

M -
T -
W - Existing home sales, EIA Pet' report, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, FHFA house price index, new home sales
F - Durable Goods Orders

*Fed Chair Powell will be speaking Friday morning, at Jackson Hole, and that will garner a great deal of mainstream attention. A Sept'26th rate hike is on track, with the QT program set to hit $50bn pcm.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.