Monday, 21 May 2018

Starting positive

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +20pts (0.7%) at 2733. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled -2.5% at 13.08. Near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'2750s, with the 2800s due in early  June.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, helped by lower concerns about a trade war. The R2K notably broke a new historic high for a fourth consecutive day. S/t price structure of a bull flag in the sp'500 has been provisionally confirmed, and will be fully confirmed with a break above last Monday's high of 2742. A broader run into the 2800s is likely now underway.
 
Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting into the low 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for some considerable time. 
-

Bonus chart: France, monthly


The French equity market is very representative of other European markets. The CAC is currently +2.1% at 5637. Soft target is the June 2007 high of 6168. That does look within range by late summer.
--



--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Saturday, 19 May 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.2% (R2K), +0.2% (Trans), -0.3 (nyse comp'), -0.5% (sp'500, Dow), to -0.7% (nasdaq comp'). Near term outlook offers a touch of weakness, but broad upside across the summer.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


A mixed week for the sp'500, seeing a high of 2742, but then choppy cooling to 2701, and settling -0.5% at 2712. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a sixth week. At the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross Tues' May 29th. The 2800s look very viable within June. Q2 earnings should be fine, and offer new historic highs (>2872) as early as late July. Big target of 2950/3047 looks viable from early September onward.


Nasdaq comp'


The tech saw a moderate net weekly decline of -0.7%, settling at 7354. Underlying price momentum continues to swing back toward the bulls, at the current rate, a bullish cross will be due Tue' May 29th.


Dow


The mighty Dow saw a moderate net weekly decline of -0.5% to 24715, but did break a new multi-week high of 24994. At the current rate, we'll see a bullish macd cross in 2-3 weeks. New historic highs look rather probable, although I'd agree, there will be threat of a double top, whilst some indexes could still break new historic highs.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a net weekly decline of -0.3% to 12717. However, like other indexes, underlying price momentum continues to swing back toward the equity bulls. A broader push to new historic highs (>13637) looks probable.


R2K


The R2K is leading the main market upward, settling +1.2% at 1626, having broken a new historic high of 1630. Note the underlying MACD cycle has turned positive for the first time since early February. In theory, 3-4 months of upside is viable, which would take us into September.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports climbed for a second week, if only by 0.2% to 10730. There is rather stiff resistance within the 10800s, but a breakout appears probable by mid June. Underlying price momentum is set to turn outright positive within 1-2 weeks.



Summary

Two indexes were net higher, with four net lower for the week.

The R2K broke a new historic high, and it bodes well for the rest of the market into/across the summer.

Considering sustained WTIC >$70, the transports is performing better than expected, and it also bodes well for the main market.
--


Looking ahead

M -
T - Richmond Fed'
W - New home sales, EIA, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, FHFA house price index, existing home sales
F - Durable goods orders, consumer sent'

*there are a few fed officials on the loose, but lately, they are of less importance. Mr Market is fully assuming a June 13th rate hike, as the QT program continues to increase.

**As Monday May 28th is CLOSED for Memorial day, Fri' May 25th will likely be very subdued.
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 18 May 2018

Opex chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -7pts at 2712. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.1% at 13.42. ear term outlook still threatens a washout to the sp'2670s, before swinging upward to the 2800s in June.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Equities opened a little weak, and remained in micro chop mode for the day.Volatility was naturally subdued, melting fractionally lower into the close, settling in the mid 13s.

Near term outlook still threatens a mini washout to the sp'2670s, which would arguably equate to VIX 16/17s. Broadly though, the US equity market appears rather strong. The fact the R2K broke another new historic high today certainly gives some support to that view.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
* the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US equity indexes.
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Thursday, 17 May 2018

Thursday chop

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2720. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled +0.1% at 13.43. Near term outlook still offers weakness to the sp'2670s, before swinging strongly back upward, with a grander run to the 2800s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, seeing an early low of 2713. From there, a push upward to 2731, fully filling the Tues' gap of 2718/30. The afternoon saw a moderate swing lower, breaking a new intraday low of 2711, before choppy upside to settle -2pts at 2720.

Volatility saw minor swings, settling fractionally higher in the mid 13s. If we do see a secondary wave lower to the sp'2670s, then a brief VIX spike to the 16/17s is probable.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

R2K new historic high

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts (0.4%) at 2722. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -8.3% at 13.42. Near term outlook offers another sig' wave lower, to the sp'2670s, before swinging back upward for opex.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and saw choppy upside to yesterday's gap of 2718/30. From an afternoon high of 2727, there was some distinct late afternoon cooling to 2717, but settling at 2722.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode, with the VIX settling in the mid 13s. If we do see another sig' wave lower to the sp'2670s, then VIX 16/17s... if very briefly.
-

Most notable today was the R2K, which broke a new historic high of 1620.

R2K weekly


As highlighted this past weekend, the R2K is especially strong, currently higher for a THIRD consecutive month. Note price structure of a bullish pennant/triangle, which is now fully confirmed.  The strength in the R2K bodes well for the rest of the market this summer.
--




--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Tuesday, 15 May 2018

Just a cooling wave

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -18pts (0.7%) at 2711. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +13.1% at 14.63. Near term outlook offers secondary target of sp'2671, before swinging strongly back upward into opex.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, and saw cooling to 2704 by lunchtime. Late afternoon saw a new intra low of 2701, but then a closing hour mini ramp. Wed' could easily open 10pts or so higher, but the secondary target of 2671 looks very viable before this Friday's opex. I will add that yesterday's black-fail candle at gap resistance, was a great example of why I consider them particularly important.

Volatility was naturally higher, with the VIX settling higher for a second day. If sp'2670s, then VIX 16/17s. The key 20 threshold looks well out of range.
--



--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Monday, 14 May 2018

Short term ceiling

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2730 (intra high 2742). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.4%. VIX settled +2.2% at 12.93. Near term outlook offers basic downside to around sp'2700.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the week on a moderately positive note, with the sp' opening higher, and pushing to 2742. This was notably within the lower end of the 2741/52 price gap from March 19th. There was a cooling wave into the mid afternoon, filling the opening gap, and putting in a micro spike low from 2725. Note the settling black-fail candle, which leans s/t bearish.

Volatility remained subdued, but did manage the first gain in 8 days, with the VIX settling in the upper 12s.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Saturday, 12 May 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.3% (Trans), +2.7% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.4% (sp'500), to +2.1% (NYSE comp'). With a decisive bullish breakout in the sp'500 on Thursday, outlook for the summer/autumn offers broad upside of 8-11% to the 2950/3047 zone.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500


A net weekly gain of 64pts (2.4%) to settle at 2727. The Thursday break above declining trend/resistance from the Jan' high was decisive, and gives some confidence for the summer ahead.

For May, the sp' is currently net higher by 3.0%. Note the key 10MA at 2644, and so far this year we've not seen any monthly settlements under it. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is trying to level out, and a bearish cross is OFF the menu for June.

On balance, original big target of 2950/3047 is back on track. I do wish to emphasise that I expect that zone to act as a concrete wall.

Considering price action from late Jan' to early April, I don't expect my year end target of 3245 to be hit. Instead, I will be seeking a very significant down wave from around sp'3K. Whether that is just another correction (10-20%) or something far more serious, is very difficult to guess right now. As I often note, the ultimate sell signal would be if the fed cut rates. A June rate hike is clearly coming, and thus I'm not bearish for the summer ahead.
--
 

Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq saw a net weekly gain of 2.7%, settling at 7402. The March historic high of 7637 is only 3.2% higher, and is easily viable within the next few weeks. Underlying MACD cycle has leveled out, as the 8000s appear due this summer.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed 2.3% to settle at 24831. Price structure of a triangle, or bull flag/pennant, has provisionally played out. Soft target is the upper monthly bollinger, currently at 26382, which is 6.2% higher, and likely out of range until at least late June/early July. Keep in mind the Jan' historic high of 26616, and the next key Fibonacci extension/extrapolation of 26702. If the latter is surpassed, it would be highly suggestive that the next major down wave will be just a correction, rather than an all out collapse wave.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a net weekly gain of 2.1%, settling at 12671. Price structure since late Jan' is arguably just a multi-month bull flag, that has already provisionally played out.


R2K


The second market leader gained 2.6% to 1606. It is very notable that the R2K is currently net higher for a THIRD consecutive month. Friday saw a high of 1609, which was just 6pts shy of the Jan' historic high of 1615. Indeed, new historic highs look probable within the near term. Underlying macd is actually ticking back upward, as a bearish cross is off the menu until at least July.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, lead the way higher this week, gaining 3.3% to 10713. For May, the tranny is net higher by 2.8%. The current gains are especially impressive, considering the continued m/t strength in WTIC. Transportation stocks are going to be particularly pressured via higher energy prices. We're seeing relative weakness within the airlines on any day where oil is sig' higher.



Summary

All six of the main US indexes saw sig' net weekly gains, lead higher by the Trans and Nasdaq.

All six of the main US indexes are currently sig' higher for May.

Downward price momentum is reducing, and a bearish macd cross is not currently due in June.

YTD price performance...


The Nasdaq is leading the way, currently +7.2% for the year, with the sp'500 +2.0%. The broadest index - the NYSE, is trailing, -0.4%.
--


Looking ahead

Key earnings: HD, CSCO, AMAT, and DE



--
M -
T - Retail sales, Empire state', Bus' invent', Housing market index
W - Housing starts, indust' prod', EIA report'
T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators
F - *OPEX*
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 11 May 2018

Chop into the weekend

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +4pts at 2727. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled -4.4% at 12.65. Near term outlook offers upside to sp'2741/52, before the next cooling wave.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was mostly a day of minor chop. The market saw early moderate gains to 2732, but there was natural cooling from the 11am typical turn time. Trump speaking about drug pricing was the excuse for minor mid afternoon declines, but then a late day moderate swing upward to settle fractionally higher.

Volatility remained very subdued, with the VIX settling lower for a seventh consecutive day, in the mid 12s.
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Thursday, 10 May 2018

Bullish breakout

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (0.9%) at 2723. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.4% at 13.23. Near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'2740/50s, before threat of a cooling wave.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and after a little chop, achieved a decisive bullish breakout in late morning. The breakout offers further near term upside to the 2740/50s, before next opportunity of a cooling wave. We have two downside gaps, and those will arguably need to be filled at some point.

With equity strength, volatility melted lower for a sixth consecutive day, with the VIX settling in the low 13s, the lowest close since Jan'26th.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html





Wednesday, 9 May 2018

Nearing big resistance

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (1.0%) at 2697. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.6%. VIX settled -8.8% at 13.42. Near term outlook is uncertain, as the sp'2700/15 zone will offer powerful resistance, but an eventual bullish breakout looks due, regardless of any cooling wave.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, saw a touch of cooling in late morning to 2674, but then swung back upward, and built sig' gains. The sp' became stuck at what is a key gap of 2701/08. Whether we see a rollover from within 2700/2715, before a bullish breakout, is difficult to say. What does seem clear, a bullish breakout IS due, and one that will offer original big target of 2950/3047.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting lower for a fifth consecutive day, settling in the mid 13s.
--


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html