Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Tuesday reversal

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -17pts at 2765 (intra range 2801/2758). Nasdaq comp' -1.0%.  The Trans/R2K settled +0.5% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +3.6% at 16.35. Near term outlook offers further cooling to the sp'2752/38 zone, before resuming broadly upward.




US equities opened moderately higher, with the sp' pushing to 2801. Much like yesterday though, that was the high of day, and the market then swung significantly lower, settling broadly weak. It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high for the third consecutive day.

Volatility picked up for a second day, with the VIX settling in the mid 16s. Near term outlook offers further cooling to last Friday's opening gap of sp'2752/38, which would likely equate to VIX 17/18s. I don't expect any price action <2720, nor the VIX sustainably >20.

Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

We now have two monthly candles with spike floors, from around the key 21k breakout threshold. This should give some confidence to the bulls for the mid term. Its just one market of many, but the Nikkei is certainly an important index to keep in mind for the monthly settlement.


Spring is just 8 days away
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

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