Tuesday, 5 December 2017

Looking back to look forward

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -9pts at 2629. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled - 1.3% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% at 11.33. Near term outlook offers a fair amount of moderate chop, as cyclically, the market is over-stretched. The year end target of sp'2683 remains on track.




Suffice to say.. it was a day of chop, with the market seeing some distinct cooling in the latter half of the day. Tech notably outperformed the main market today. Despite the swing from sp'2648 to '27, the VIX stayed red the entire day, and is indicative of underlying capital market confidence.

Today I wanted to highlight some chatter from the lunchtime show...

BAC's Ms. Subramanian is seeking the sp'2800s in 2018. Its broadly inline with many...

Naturally, I had to wonder... 'ohh, so what did BAC/Ms. Subra' think last year?

A little digging in my archives...

... and ohh lookie, (Dec'19th 2016) BAC were seeking 2300 for end 2017. That is a monstrous 365pts shy of Monday's high, and that number might even increase >400 in the remaining 17 trading days of the year.

Yours truly IS leading the curve. My original target of 2683 has come within 18pts of being hit. 

Ohh, and yes, I am already finalising an end 2018 target. Those of you who follow me particularly closely will already have a fair idea of what I'm likely to soon make official.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

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