Saturday, 25 November 2017

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 1.8% (R2K), 1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), to 0.9% (sp'500, Dow). Near term outlook threatens a brief retrace, but the sp'2640/50s appear highly probable into year end.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


After two consecutive fractional net weekly declines, the sp'500 is back on the rise, with a net weekly gain of 23pts (0.9%) to 2602. There was a notable new historic high of 2604. Note the upper bollinger, which is offering the 2625s, and that number will jump another 6-7pts at next Monday's open. By year end, the 2640/50s will be technically viable.

Best guess: near term weakness, perhaps as low as 2572/64, before another surge into year end, very likely to the 2640/50s. My year original year end target of 2683 looks to be 30/40pts out of range. More broadly, sp'3K is a valid target for late spring 2018. 

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close under the monthly key 10MA - currently at 2458, and that number will jump around 35pts at next Friday's Dec'1st open.

Nasdaq comp'

The tech climbed for a second week, +1.6% at 6889, with a new hist' high of 6890. The 7000s seem a given before year end. The 8000s are a valid target for late spring/early summer 2018. It remains strange that hardly anyone dares speculate with any talk of 'Nas' 10k', even given another 2-3 years.


The mighty Dow climbed 199pts (0.9%) to 23557, with a notable new hist' high of 23617. Note the upper bollinger in the 23900s, and that will likely be in the 24000s within 1-2 weeks. Just consider that another 25% up in 2018 will give Dow 30K. That will of course need almost everything to go right, not least continued US/world growth, further rate hikes, and at least some degree of commodity inflation.

NYSE comp'

The master index climbed 1.0% to 12421. Upper bollinger is offering the 12600/700s within the near term. The 13000s look out of range before year end. Things would only turn provisionally bearish with any closes <12k.


The second market leader climbed a significant 1.8% to 1519, with a notable new hist' high of 1524. Upper bollinger is offering the 1551s, and that number will come rather close to the 1600 threshold by year end. As I have said across this year, talk of 'R2K @ 2K' is valid.


The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed 1.4% to 9620. The 10K threshold is the obvious target for the next push upward. Whether we settle the year a little above or below it, seems frankly not that important. Just keep in mind the tranny settled 2016 at 9043, so we're currently net higher by 6.4%.


It was a bullish week for the US equity market with four of the main indexes - Dow, sp'500, nasdaq comp', and the R2K breaking new historic highs.

All indexes have at least 3-4% of downside buffer before their m/t trends from early 2016 would be challenged.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the majority of indexes see a monthly close below their respective monthly 10MAs, and that looks unlikely any time soon.

Looking ahead

M - New home sales
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed'
W - Q3 GDP (2nd est'), pending home sales, EIA Pet' report, Fed beige book
T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI
F - Vehicle sales, PMI/ISM manu', construction

*There are a truck load of fed officials on the loose, notably...

Powell (Tue' 10am), nomination hearing before the US Senate. That will likely be covered live.

Yellen (Wed' 10am) speaking to the US House on the econ' outlook. That will last at least two hours, and will no doubt garner blanket coverage on the financial networks. Yellen's last key appearance will be the press conf' for the FOMC of Dec'13th, when rates will be hiked another 25bps to a new target range of 1.25-1.50%.

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.