Tuesday, 19 September 2017

Awaiting the Fed

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +2pts at 2506. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.1%. VIX settled +0.3% at 10.18. Near term outlook offers a key turn, once the Fed are out of the way. A 4-5% main market correction to the 200dma remains on the menu.




US equities opened fractionally higher, notably breaking two new historic highs for the Dow and NYSE comp'. With equities still leaning upward, market volatility remained very subdued, with the VIX again dropping into the 9s, but managing to settle fractionally higher in the low 10s.

As for the fed tomorrow...

I sure don't expect a rate hike, and neither does the mainstream. The only uncertainty is whether QT will be announced to begin. The plan was issued some months ago of course, and even if the Fed starts selling T-bonds and MBS back to the market, the amounts are insignificant, at least to begin with.

What will be interesting tomorrow afternoon is the Yellen press conference at 2.30pm. Even if the market initially spikes higher on 'omg, QT has begun!' hysteria, I would see the market at high threat of a sig' reversal, not least with each question that Yellen responds to.

Quartet of doom: Quakes, terrorism, hurricanes, and fire


A peaceful end to the day

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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