Saturday, 25 February 2017

The sun has not set... yet

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2367. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -2.0% at 11.47. Near term outlook is for renewed upside of another 1-2%... as the US equity market remains super strong.




The US market opened moderately lower, but sp'2352 - with VIX 12.59, was all the equity bears could manage. The daily close was actually pretty bullish, as the Dow managed to close net higher for an eleventh consecutive day.

The week as a whole was unquestionably bullish, with 5 of the 6 main indexes breaking new historic highs. Only the Transports was leaning weak.

As for the sunset...

For London city, it was a sunny end to the week, and a pleasant improvement after yesterday's winter storm 'Doris'.

The same is true for the equity market.. the sun is still shining in equity bull land. Sure, a basic retrace of around 5% will be a threat from early March onward. However, energy is a serious threat to any such cooling, as the sector is overdue another push higher. Clearly, oil/nat' gas prices are going to be a key variable in that regard. Will the market start to price in 'summer driving season' soon? Is that going to be the excuse for a continued straight up rally across March, and much of April?

Goodnight from London
*the weekend post will appear Saturday at 12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes