Thursday, 15 December 2016

Short term retrace

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -18pts @ 2253. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +3.7% @ 13.19. Near term outlook offers weakness into this Friday's quad-opex, at least to 2230.




It was the last big trading event of 2016. Not surprisingly, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a target range of 0.5-0.75%.

The market was particularly twitchy as Yellen spoke for almost an hour. Despite a little bounce around 3.30pm.. the market saw renewed weakness into the close.

On balance, a move to the 2230s looks a given.. and that will likely equate to VIX 14/15s. The only issue is whether a more significant retrace to around the 2200 threshold... but that is surely out of range until early next week.

Meanwhile..  on clown finance TV...

Talk of Dow 40k could be seen as 'crazy talk', but so was Dow 20k just 5 weeks ago. As ever... we take this one day at a time... but from a grand perspective... we know where we're broadly headed, right?

Goodnight from London