Thursday, 3 November 2016

An eighth consecutive daily decline

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -9pts @ 2088 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +14.3% @ 22.08. Near term outlook threatens a 'monthly jobs' bounce to around 2115, but regardless, broader price action will remain weak into next Tue/Wed.




First.... so much for the bounce. There is still a threat of a brief move higher tomorrow - with the jobs data, but broadly, price action is set to remain weak into next week's election.

US equities opened a little higher, yet again though... another failure, with the market breaking a new cycle low in the afternoon of sp'2085 - with VIX confirming, with a new high of 22.57.

Most notable, today was the eighth consecutive net daily decline for the sp'500, which was the most bearish run since Oct'2008.

Today saw the eighth consecutive net daily gain in the VIX, which is the most bullish run in a decade... perhaps ever. VIX 25s look a pretty easy target... with a viable brief spike around 30 next Tues/Wed.

Once the election result becomes clear, regardless of who wins, equities should resume higher, with the VIX broadly cooling into end month.

Energy prices continue to fall

WTIC oil, weekly

A net Thurs' decline of -$0.68 (1.5%), settling @ $44.66. Next support is the Sept' low of $43.06, and then the Aug' low of $39.19. The latter looks out of range unless we see some daily closes of sp'2050 or lower, which doesn't seem likely.

Goodnight from London