Thursday, 14 July 2016

Grey skies for the equity bears

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +0.3pts @ 2152 (new historic high 2156). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a touch of opex weak-chop, with the sp'2200s highly probable in Aug/Sept.




Suffice to add, a new historic high of sp'2156, with Dow 18390.

The sp'2200s look due, with Dow 18500/600s into September.

This is the ongoing mantra from 'some'.

-The market won't break >2134  (yes, yours truly was on that train until last Thurs/Friday)
-The market has broken >2134, but it won't last.. it'll quickly rollover
-Okay, the market has broken >2134.. and is now holding the 2150s, but it'll still cool lower into August, and maybe crash in the autumn.

I can imagine given another month or two we'll have...

-Err... so we're in the sp'2200s, but its not sustainable, the market is still vulnerable to a massive crash

Its perhaps obvious to say, but the new historic highs are NOT bearish, and for those that disagree.. go stare at the following for an hour...

There are no blue skies in sight for the bears. We have seen the sp'500 lead the way higher. The Dow has followed. The Nasdaq is next in line (>5231).

There seems zero point in launching any short-side positions unless there is a break of rising trend - which for the sp' will be around 2040 in early August.

How high could the market climb in this multi-month wave - from the Jan/Feb' low (confirmed via the new historic highs) ? I'll look at that another day.

In any case... if you're still bearish, maybe go stare at the above picture for another hour. There is no sunshine there for you.

Goodnight from London