Saturday, 17 December 2016

20k can wait

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2258. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -4.6% @ 12.20. Near term outlook offers a basic retrace to sp'2232/31, at best... the bears might reach 2205/2190s.. before the next big surge to the 2300s and Dow 20k.




The mainstream have been (understandably) looking forward to Dow breaking the giant psy' level of 20k. The Dow came real close on Wednesday afternoon, with a peak of 19966.

Today opened a little higher, but there was increasing weakness into the afternoon, as there are just very few willing to buy at these levels, or ahead of the weekend.

Right now, Dow 20k looks far more likely after the Christmas holiday break.. than before.

*Bonus chart, UK, monthly

With just nine trading days left of the year, my home market of the UK is battling to break AND hold above multi-decade resistance of 7k. A Dec', or Jan' close in the 7000s would be extremely bullish, and offer further basic upside to 8k by late spring/early summer 2017.

I realise many of you (those in the USA) don't care about other world markets, but they can be used as indirect indicators of where the US market might be headed in the months, and even years ahead.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes