Saturday, 29 October 2016

Spooked by the Feds

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -6pts @ 2126 (intra low 2119). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% @ 16.19. Near term outlook offers threat of upside on Mon/Tuesday, but broadly to 2080 in early November.




Well, today sure wasn't dull.

We saw a micro opening washout to sp'2127, with a rather clear spike floor. The market soon battled upward to the low sp'2140s. Things churned in the 12pm hour..... and the rest of the day looked set for slow crawl.. leaning to the upside.

... but then news that the FBI are set to look into the Hillary emails again really rocked the market. Indeed, the 1pm price action was the most bearish in some months.

With the market seeing a signficant downward swing of 1%, the VIX naturally exploded into the 17s. Despite cooling a little, the weekly close in the 16s is notable. The key 20 threshold looks a relatively easy target, certainly no later than mid November.

US.. relative to rest of the world

Spain, monthly

I'll merely highlight Spain, as its a reasonable reflection of many other world markets. With just one trading day left of the month, the IBEX is set for a very sig' net monthly gain of almost 5%. There is open air to at least 10k, which is another 8% higher.

Were it not for the election, the US market would probably be pushing to new historic highs, with Dow 19k. The point is... once the election is out of the way, the US market should be able to resume higher.

For now... no alarm bells unless a daily close in the sp'2050s or lower.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat '12pm, and will detail the US weekly charts.