Saturday, 20 August 2016

Underlying upside

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2183. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -0.8% @ 11.34. Near term outlook offers a little chop ahead of next Friday's Jackson Hole event, but broadly, the 2200s still look due.




Opening moderate weakness... but as usual... the market saw some degree of latter day recovery.

VIX remains very subdued, and it still seems probable we'll eventually see single digit VIX - for the first time since Feb' 2007.

Update from Mr R.



As things are, Aug' looks set to close bullish, with a sixth consecutive monthly green candle. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is now positive, and could easily continue ticking higher all the way into spring 2017.

What should be clear, this market has very powerful underlying upside. There remain an increasing number of huge societal/economic problems, but hey... when hasn't that been the case on this third rock from the sun?

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes.