Saturday, 23 July 2016

A fourth week of gains

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +9pts @ 2175. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled -5.6% @ 12.02. Near term outlook offers minor threat of FOMC cooling to the 2130s, but broader upside across August and into September.




So, despite yet another Friday 'event' in mainland Europe, the sp'500 ended the week at the historic high of 2175.

VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling sub-teens for the ninth consecutive day. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until mid/late September.

WTIC oil, weekly

A significant net weekly decline of -$2.09 (4.5%), settling @ $44.19. Clearly, the psy' level of $50 is natural resistance. It could be argued price structure is offering a large multi-month bull flag, that would be provisionally confirmed with a weekly close >$48.

The weakness in oil is not particularly surprising considering the continuing strength in the USD. There will be some significant downward pressure in Oil, Gold/Silver, and even equities, on a break >DXY 100.

USD, weekly

The US Fed will certainly not wish to see the USD break above DXY 100, and will thus be highly inclined against raising rates - which would make the USD even more attractive. Price action/structure since early 2015 could be argued is a giant multi-year bull flag. A break >100 would offer an eventual move to the 120s, which would likely equate to USD>GBP parity.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post on the US weekly indexes will appear Sat' @ 12pm EST