Saturday, 11 June 2016

Ending the week on a negative note

Equity bulls managed a new multi-year high of sp'2120.55 on Wednesday, but there has since been a distinct change in market mood, with a Friday decline of -19pts ( 0.9%) at 2096. VIX is reflecting some increasing mainstream concern ahead of the FOMC (June 15th) and BREXIT (June 23rd) vote, settling +16.3% @ 17.03.




Clearly, not massive declines to end the week, but somewhat significant.

Market remains stuck under the May 2015 highs.

Earnings, growth/production data, and a number of geo-political issues continue to pin the US - and world markets, from breaking any higher.

The central banks are no doubt on standby to initiate more (insane) measures... but for them to justify that, we'll need to see considerably lower index levels.

It is highly arguable that the US Fed would not be able to initiate QE4, unless sp'1600s.. or lower. Of course, talk of NIRP and QE would begin from the sp'1900/1800s.

A fractional net weekly decline


A net weekly decline (if fractional), with a spiky top candle, which is suggestive of a short/mid term high. As anticipated, we have a divergent lower MACD cycle high. At the current rate, we'll see a bearish cross in BREXIT week, with increasing weakness into early July.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the US monthly indexes.