Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2065. USD is u/c in the DXY 94.50s. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -0.2%. Oil is +0.1% in the $47s.. having earlier been in the $48s.



*UK CPI: y/y, 0.3% (see HERE for details) relative to the US 0.9% (new data due at 8.30am EST).

However you want to measure it... Mr Deflation is out there.. and that scares the hell out of the central bankers, as their 'game' requires a net monetary increase each year in order for things to not implode.

It should be clear to most.. that mainstream chatter about 'QE-Heli' money is itself increasing... and it appears inevitable that it will be tried.... probably starting in Japan or the EU.

As for the market... its a tricky situation... as there is still threat of 2085/90 late today/tomorrow... but in any case.... we should break the recent low of 2039, as will be more viable after the Friday opex is out of the way.

In many ways... a more important question is whether May will settle above or below the psy' level of 2K.

... the bigger weekly cycles would suggests under.

Update from Oscar

I've watched most of the 1469 videos that Oscar has posted... and this ranks as one of the top ten. It is balanced, and with a very valid focus on the broader price structure in equities... and the price action in Gold (which also applies to Silver, and the related miners).

If the market does unravel... I shall hope the mainstream (Fox business?) give him some credit for correctly calling it

Overnight action

Japan: broad gains, +1.1% @ 16652
China: mild chop, -0.2% @ 2843
Germany: currently cooling from early gains, -0.1% @ 9942... as the big 10K threshold remains tough for the bull maniacs to break/hold.

Have a good Tuesday

8.32am.. CPI, y/y, +1.1%....  above consensus... and keep in mind that is relative to the UK's 0.3%.

sp -4pts.. 2062

Housing starts data was mixed... and despite an improvement in April... the March number was revised even lower to -9%.