Friday, 6 May 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +6pts @ 2057 (intra low 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, but remains broadly bearish unless a break >2080. Best case short term downside is the 2000/1990s, before the next sig' bounce of around 3-4%.



*closing hour action: minor chop... with seemingly no one wanting to buy >2057.

From this evening's movie...

"What am I doing?" Dr Zimsky, 2003

One of my favourite scenes in the rather fun disaster movie 'The Core'. I often feel like Dr Zimsky... narrating into the final seconds.. only to realise its all been largely pointless ;)

.. and another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to a close.

Most notable this week, despite the market cooling from sp'2083 to 2039, the VIX remained broadly subdued, and was unable to break above last week's high - when the sp' floored at 2052.

Equity bulls just need to be trading above 2080 next Wed' to break declining trend.. and that will open up a push >2111.

Even if bears can push lower to the 2000/1990s next week, that will merely make for an even stronger opportunity for a 5-10 day bounce of 3-4%.

Best guess: renewed downside, but that is going to take some sporadic 'spooky news', as there isn't anything significant scheduled next week.

notable weakness.. CHK, daily

Yesterday's candle was a classic black-fail, and we have a clear break of rising trend. CHK remains on the disappear list.

Have a good weekend

**the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week...