Friday, 6 May 2016

1pm update - 6 of 7

It sure doesn't particularly feel like it, but it is the case that the sp'500 has seen six net daily declines of the last seven trading days. Despite the decline from 2099 to 2039 (60pts, 2.9%), the VIX has remained stuck in the mid teens. For the moment, the mainstream simply aren't concerned about any corporate/economic issue.




Suffice to add... the battle continues in market land... price pressure is still leaning to the downside.

There IS a clear divergence between the indexes and the VIX. When the VIX was 17.09 last week, the sp' was @ 2052.. but today's low of 2039 only saw VIX 16.58.

Best bear case is currently sp'2000/1990s (a 38% fib retrace of the 301pt ramp)... and that should equate to VIX in the 19/21 zone.

Even if that is hit though...  another 3% bounce then looks due to 2050/60.

Things really don't get interesting until late May.

notable weakness... AAPL, daily

Not pretty.... sub $90s look due... with 70s this summer.

time for some sun...