Wednesday, 13 April 2016

Oil causing trouble for the equity bears

The net daily gain in WTIC oil of $1.76 (4.2%) to $43.50, was unquestionably a primary motivator for today's mid morning rebound. Indeed.. it only took the algo-bots around 2mins to swing most indexes 0.5% to the upside. A core issue in the months ahead is where will oil broadly trend.

WTIC, weekly2

WTIC, monthly2


Most notable, the move into the $43s, has resulted in a clear break above the monthly 10MA. Equity/oil bears should be desperate for an April close <$41.

Today's rumour/chatter that Russia and the House of Saud have provisionally agreed to freeze oil production is just that...........a totally unsubstanciated/unconfirmed headline-rumour.

Ironically, even if correct, what about all the other producers across the world, including the USA? For global energy prices to stop broadly falling, output needs to be CUT... not just frozen.

For the moment, the Feb' low of $26.05 still looks like it will eventually be broken under.

Macro-econ chatter, Mr Long with Mr Smith.

For those with an interest in the grander financial/societal issues, this is required viewing.

Looking ahead

Wednesday is pretty packed.. with retail sales, PPI, business invent', the latest EIA report, and the Fed Beige book (due 2pm).

Goodnight from London