Tuesday, 19 April 2016

12pm update - a sub 2090 daily close?

US equities are looking increasingly vulnerable to cooling across the afternoon. A Tuesday close under sp'2090 would break the very short term rising trend, and offer further downside to the rather obvious gap zone of 2065/61 before the weekend.




Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) equity hourly cycle is starting to rollover, and we are clearly due another retrace... if only to the low 2060s.

The REAL issue is what about next week?

Are the equity bull maniacs going to be able to close April at the highs.. or will we see some end month cooling, with a challenge of (what I consider) the increasingly important higher low of sp'2033.

As things are, I'm still holding out.. as the notion of closing a VIX long position from the 13s seems plain stupid.

(but yes.. I'm aware the VIX can remain broadly subdued for weeks... even many months).

time for lunch