Thursday, 24 March 2016

VIX cools into the Easter weekend

Whilst US equities closed moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued (intra high 16.44), and settling -1.3% @ 14.74. Across the week, the VIX gained 5.1%. The key 20 threshold looks viable late next week/early April.





*note the opening black-fail candle on the hourly chart. Those are often warnings of equity downside exhaustion.

It was not surprising to see early VIX gains evaporate into the close, not least because of the long 3 day holiday weekend.

A retrace to the low 14s.. even 13s, seems due next Mon/Tuesday, before the next surge, back to around the key 20 threshold.

*it is highly notable, that the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now on the extremely low side. At the current rate, a bullish cross is not viable for at least 4-5 weeks.

By default, 'hyper VIX upside' to the 40s.. or 50s, appears possible no earlier than May.

more later.. on the indexes