Wednesday, 2 March 2016

The laughable bullish hysteria

With Fed official Dudley touting no threat of any rate hikes in the near term, the market opened higher, and built gains across the day. The mainstream are naturally getting increasingly confident about the rest of 2016. After all, with the sp'500 set to move above the 2K threshold, everything is fine again, right?




Again, it is highly notable that the February close was weak, making for the third consecutive net monthly decline.

We have the monthly 10MA at 2011, and that will be prime resistance across March.

Equity bears must see a March close under the 10MA.. if not preferably under the Feb' close of 1932.

If we're trading in the 2020/40 zone around mid March, it will be tough to see a March close <1900.

re: weekly8f. The current pattern/setup is clearly similar to summer 2008.

Every cycle is unique, and there are many differences of course from summer 2008, but still... in theory, the next down wave should be the most powerful..and take us to at least the low 1600s...testing the double top of 2000/2007. The same can be said for a number of other world markets, notably the German DAX.

Looking ahead

Wed' will see ADP jobs, the latest EIA report, and the Fed beige book (2pm).

*Fed official Williams is on the loose in early morning.

Goodnight from London