Friday, 4 March 2016

Equities continue to battle higher

It was another day for the equity bulls, with a new cycle high of sp'1993, and VIX hitting the low 16s. It still seems entirely natural for the market to have the better part of a further two weeks of upside to the 2020/40 zone, before the current multi-week up wave concludes.




We're set for a third consecutive net weekly gain, having climbed from sp'1810.

re: weekly8f: I realise many will disagree, and suggest we are earlier in the 2007/08 pattern than what I believe.

However, what most should agree on, we are forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, since the May 2015 peak of sp'2134.

For me, a March close above the 10MA (currently @ 2012) would negate the broader bearish outlook.

Looking ahead

Friday will see the latest monthly jobs data. Market is expecting net job gains of 190k, with a static headline jobless rate of 4.9%. That does not seem overly optimistic. Arguably, a number in the 200/225k range would be seen as 'Goldilocks'.

*Fed official Kaplan is on the loose at 1pm.

Goodnight from London