Tuesday, 29 March 2016

3pm update - awaiting a turn

US equities are so far holding the Yellen bounce gains, but cyclically, are increasingly vulnerable to cooling across the remaining two days of the month. VIX has been crushed to the low 14s, although notably above the recent double low of 13.75. USD is certainly helping oil/equities.




We've come pretty close to breaking the 2056 high...   and if the equity bulls can't break it in the closing hour/early tomorrow... then it'll be a marginal double top.... with some interesting downside into end month.

A very valid and serious question I'd pose to any of the bull maniacs... not least those cheerleaders on clown finance TV...

Q. So.. do you want to go long from the sp'2050s right now?

**A Tuesday close in the sp'2045/40 zone would be.......... useful.

*I remain very content to hold short-SPY, and long VIX (via TVIX) overnight.

3.13pm...  sp'2054... still stuck...  but VIX continues to melt lower, 14.10.

notable strength: miners, GDX +5.5%.. as Gold +$21.

3.34pm...  Still not yet able to clear the 2056 high.   VIX 13.90s..

USD -0.8%....  and that is helping take the downside edge off Oil, but still -2.4% in the $38s. 

3.50pm.. sp'2053... so.. the Yellen wasn't quite enough to break the key high.

If ADP jobs/ oil reports upset the cart tomorrow... we should see increasing weakness into at least the Thursday/March close.

... back at the close!