Tuesday, 29 March 2016

2pm update - opportunity for a reversal

With the Yellen out of the way, the equity bears have an open window until the Thursday/March close. Last weeks high of sp'2056 should hold. USD continues to cool, -0.7% in the DXY 95.20s. Gold +$16. Oil -2.7% in the $38s.

sp'15min cycle


*I remain on standby...

seeking to short via SPY.. and long VIX (via TVIX).

1.55pm.. the setup looks rather good... for a reversal from 2048/50.

Certainly... a move >2056 looks very difficult.

2.03pm.. minor short-stop cascade underway.

VIX 14.40s.... wow.

*I'm starting to wonder if we'll see a crazy 'rogue print' in the 12/11s this hour.

2.08pm.. I'm SHORT-SPY.. from sp'2049...

2.15pm.. Long-VIX, via TVIX, from TVIX $4.80, with VIX 14.42.

All things considered, I'm content with those two positions, especially with the VIX in the low teens.

2.31pm.. sp'2053... VIX still cooling, 14.20s...

The issue now is clearly whether Mr Market will be able to wash out the sp'2056 stops.

Regardless...cyclically.. we're on the very high side.