Monday, 1 February 2016

3pm update - VIX was today's tell

Equity bears should have noticed the VIX (via VXX, TVIX/UVXY) as early as pre-market. The VIX remains broadly subdued, and now its a case of whether today closes a little above.. or below the key 20 threshold. The daily lower bollinger is around 18.50... and that is clearly within range this week.




Well, not much to add.

Its a rather tedious start to the month, despite seeing the sp'500 rally from a morning low of 1920 to almost back to flat.

In any case, VIX was indeed the tell.

notable weakness... TVIX, daily

You can see the lower bollinger offering the 7s in the near term.. and that does seem likely. With another week or two of chop... TVIX will suffer some statistical decay, and a brief foray into the 6s will be possible next week.

I'd be tempted in the low 7s, but even then, I'd rather wait until Yellen next Wed/Thursday.

back at the close