With equities closing significantly lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise (intra high 21.86), settling +6.5% @ 20.59. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness to the sp'1960/50s, and that should equate to VIX 25/26s.
*a notable second black-fail candle in three trading days. Typically, such candles would be indicative of renewed equity upside.
The VIX was something of an anomaly today. Yes, it closed net higher, but the gains were minor, relative to the equity declines.
Is VIX warning that equities are very close to flooring, or is VIX merely lagging, reflecting market complacency?
My guess is its the latter, with lower equity levels due in the days ahead. If that is the case, the VIX should at least test the highs from Dec' 14th.
more later... on the indexes