Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly lower, sp -29pts, we're set to open at 1987. The Monday low of 1989 is set to be broken, opening up a straight move to the 1960/50s today. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are offering the 1920/00 zone.



The detonation of a nuclear bomb in North Korea is clearly not helping global equity sentiment. Other than a giant 10km rock falling into the Pacific, is it the ultimate excuse for a big gap lower.

With an open <2K, the bear flag will be confirmed.

A few have correctly noted in the past few days there is support in the 1960/50s... and it will be interesting to see if the market finds support there.

In the bigger picture it doesn't much matter though.. we're headed far... far lower.

Update from Oscar

Doomer chat, Hunter with Ms. Brown

As ever, make of that, what you will.

Overnight action....

Germany, DAX  currently -1.4% @ 10160.
Japan: -1.0% @ 18191
China: +2.2% @ 3361.. strong gains into the close, as the 'lockup/no sell' rule is extended to 'indefinite' by the communists. The PBOC were also probably buying after the nuke.

What am I doing? Well, I'm faced with either chasing it lower on ANY nano bounce in early trading.. or merely sitting it out until the current cycle plays out... and then waiting for a bounce to play out into late January.

In any case... I can't be long now... the December close was decisive across the world. We're headed broadly lower in the weeks and months ahead.

Have a good Wednesday

8.00am... sp -33pts... 1983....

notable early movers..

VXX +8%,  TVIX/UVXY +16%

AAPL -2.5% @ $100
DIS -1.9% @ $99

8.15am ADP jobs: 257k, well above expectations. Good news is 'bad news' ?

sp -34pts @ 1982

9.00am.. sp -30pts... 1986...

Meanwhile.. the cheerleaders are under strain...

It will be a rough time ahead for those who want to wave pom poms.

9.12am.. I keep writing 2080s... rather than 1980s. I think my subconscious is struggling to believe the market is actually trading under the 2K threshold!

9.36am... A break <1989.... empty air to 1965/50 zone.

VIX is kinda surprisingly cool, just +12% in the 21s. I'd have expected 23/24s at least.