Friday, 29 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher (ahead of GDP data), sp +11pts, we're set to open at 1904. USD is +0.6% in the DXY 99.10s. Metals are broadly flat. Oil is cooling, -0.5% in the $33s.



Even if the market closes today net higher by 20/30pts, it will still make for one of the most bearish January's ever.

*bulls need a Friday gain 13.6pts for a net weekly gain.. that is clearly possible.

However, market faces two likely bearish data points today... GDP and Chicago PMI.

early movers...

MSFT +6%... good earnings
AMZN -10%.... huge EPS miss...  $1.00.. so $4 per yr.. PE 135 or so

TVIX -2.8% @ $8.94. The 7s look an easy target within 2-3 weeks.

Overnight action...

Japan: very unstable session... but settling +2.8% @ 17518, after the BoJ decided NIRP will solve their underlying problem of too few babies.

China: +3.1% @ 2737.
Germany: currently +0.6% @ 9697

It is extremely notable that ALL world markets are settling January with dire net monthly declines. I will cover that in depth this weekend.

Have a good Friday

8.31am. Q4 GDP q/q change:  +0.7%.... lousy. There is little good there for the macro bulls, and that number could (and often is) be revised fractionally negative in Feb/March

sp +8pts @ 1901

next up... the Chicago PMI at 9.45am

9.46am.. PMI 55.6   , crazy... makes NO sense.

Equity bulls should be laughing at that one..