Thursday, 21 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1861. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 99.00s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$2. Oil continues to implode, -2.0%, around the $28.00.



*awaiting the ECB/Draghi...

So.... is sp'1812 a short term low? The daily candles - esp' Trans/R2K, are suggestive of yes.

We need a daily close >1900 to give clarity.

In terms of downside, best bear case remains 1750/25 zone.

Update from an increasingly loud Oscar

Overnight action...

Japan: holding steady for most of the day, but then spiralling lower into the close, -2.4% @ 16017. Not pretty.
China: much like Japan, falling into the close, -3.2% @ 2880
Germany: shaky gains, currently +0.8% @ 9469

Have a good Thursday

8.13am... ECB keep rates unchanged (keep in mind, they are already negative).

Now its a case of word games from Draghi. Will he threaten increased QE... and would the market buy such threats?

sp +4pts... 1863.... clearly, just getting to 1900 won't be easy.... and seems unlikely today.

8.27am.. sp +11pts... 1870.... as Draghi is due in a few minutes.

*keep in mind, we've the EIA oil report at 10.30am. It could be one of those days when despite a bad inventory number, the Oil market still rallies.

8.36am... with talk of 'extended period'... markets initially ramping, sp +18pts... 1877.

8.38am... continued threats.... sp +21pts... 1880.

So.. Draghi is giving the market a major kick higher.... now its about how the market inteprets the Oil report at 10.30am.

9.13am.. twitchy market.. sp +8pts... 1867.

Still... 1812 is a long way down...... time is, or has already run out for the bears.